The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated! Mark Twain.
Origin
Mark Twain quotation after hearing that his obituary had been published in the New York Journal.
Mistaken publications of obituaries aren’t as rare as you might expect. A recent example is of Dave Swarbrick, the British folk/rock violinist, who was killed off mistakenly by the Daily Telegraph in April 1999 when they reported that his visit to hospital in Coventry had resulted in his death. He did at least get the opportunity to read a rather favourable account of his life, not something we all get to do, and to deliver the gag “It’s not the first time I have died in Coventry”.
So why have I opened with this quote from Mark Twain? Read on and I hope all will be clear.
Integrity is always about getting to the truth!
A little under a week ago I published a couple of posts that proposed that the United States of America is an empire in decline. The first was What goes up? and the second Might just come down! As a Brit I well know that aspect of British history!
However a recent conversation with a friend of many years back in England, who has also been a shrewd and wise entrepreneur for longer than I care to remember, argued that the evidence for the ‘end of the USA’ could be challenged.
He cited five reasons why he thought the USA would remain, more or less, in its dominant position. They were:
- Spirit of innovation
- Relaxed labour laws
- The importance of Mexico
- The uncertainty of China in terms of the next ’empire’
- The likely energy self-sufficiency for the USA in the near-term.
So let me expand on each of those points.
Spirit of innovation
Let me quote from an article in TIME Magazine of the 5th June, 2011,
Innovation is as American as apple pie. It seems to accord with so many elements of our national character — ingenuity, freedom, flexibility, the willingness to question conventional wisdom and defy authority. But politicians are pinning their hopes on innovation for more urgent reasons. America’s future growth will have to come from new industries that create new products and processes. Older industries are under tremendous pressure. Technological change is making factories and offices far more efficient. The rise of low-wage manufacturing in China and low-wage services in India is moving jobs overseas. The only durable strength we have — the only one that can withstand these gale winds — is innovation.
Now there are plenty to argue both ways in terms of the future innovation potential for the USA, as a recent article in The Atlantic does, see American Innovation: It’s the Best of Times and the Worst of Times. But the spirit of innovation will be a powerful economic potential for the USA for many years to come.
Relaxed labour laws.
Definitely an area that I have little knowledge of except for the subjective notion that compared to many other nations, the laws in the USA are much less of a restraint on economic productivity than elsewhere.
The importance of Mexico.
Importance in the context of providing the USA with a source of cheaper manufacturing facilities. My English friend thought that this was a significant competitive advantage for the USA. Now, as it happens, we had a couple staying with us over the week-end of the 6th/7th October. The husband is a senior manager of Horst Engineering, an American firm based in Guaymas, Sonora County, Mexico. Here’s a picture from their website,
We are a contract manufacturer of precision machined components and assemblies for aerospace, medical, and other high technology industries. Our core processes include Swiss screw machining, turning, milling, thread rolling, centerless grinding, and assembly. Our extensive supply chain offers our customers a full service logistics solution for managing their precision product requirements. We are ISO9001:2008 and AS9100 registered and proud of our 66 year, three-generation legacy of quality and performance.
I was told that many American and British firms were using Mexico rather than China for a number of reasons. Not least because Chinese suppliers require full payment before shipment. Plus that taking into account that financial aspect together with shipping costs and other logistical issues, China wasn’t as ‘cheap’ over all. Here’s a recent announcement from Rolls Royce,
Rolls-Royce plans new Sonora hub
The burgeoning aerospace industry in Guaymas had its efforts validated recently when the venerable Rolls-Royce chose it as the site for its newest global purchasing office.
Surrounded by several of its aerospace manufacturing suppliers, London-based Rolls-Royce will move into a Guaymas industrial park owned by Tucson-based The Offshore Group to develop a supply hub for commercial jets and military aircraft around the globe.
“Rolls-Royce has very robust booking orders for the next 10 years,” said Joel Reuter, director of communications for Rolls-Royce in North America. “We need to double our production.”
Because a number of Rolls-Royce suppliers already operate in Guaymas, the city was a logical choice, Reuter said.
The uncertainty of China in terms of the next ’empire’
The point made in terms of China taking over ’empire’ status from the USA, as Simon Johnson argues over at Baseline Scenario, is countered by the fact that politically China is an unknown quantity. Until China endorses some form of democratic process, that unknowingness is not going to disappear.
The likely energy self-sufficiency for the USA in the near-term.
I can’t do better than to ask you to watch this video! Just 27-minutes long, it is a very interesting review of the energy future of the USA.
As the TED website suggests in terms of why you should listen to Amory Lovins,
Amory Lovins was worried (and writing) about energy long before global warming was making the front — or even back — page of newspapers. Since studying at Harvard and Oxford in the 1960s, he’s written dozens of books, and initiated ambitious projects — cofounding the influential, environment-focused Rocky Mountain Institute; prototyping the ultra-efficient Hypercar — to focus the world’s attention on alternative approaches to energy and transportation.
His critical thinking has driven people around the globe — from world leaders to the average Joe — to think differently about energy and its role in some of our biggest problems: climate change, oil dependency, national security, economic health, and depletion of natural resources.
More on Reinventing Fire may be found here.
So, don’t know about you, but I found those five points deeply convincing. How about you? Are the reports of the death of the USA greatly exaggerated? Do leave a comment.
Learning from Dogs 
For anyone who follows the current US election (and US politics in general) it’s clear that it’s time to administer the last rites to US democracy. I would suggest as US democracy goes, so goes the United States as a nation.
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Christine, the least said about the US Presidential ‘process’ the better. Really does bring to mind that saying that democracy is the least worst form of Government! Funny old world! Paul
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The USA is most definitely an empire in decline: like others before it, self-assured of its own dominance, it constantly demonstrates an inability to see beyond its own nose.
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Must say that it does look that way but time will tell. Thanks for leaving your thoughts, Paul
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Thanks for a good read, Paul. I completely agree that, theoretically, America (and the rest of the world for that matter) can make the transition to the age of sustainable prosperity without any major tragedies along the way. All that is needed is the will to do so (what I like to call the culture of contribution and personal responsibility). It really is that simple.
I liked the Reinventing Fire video as well and, although my experience suggests that their figures are greatly over-optimistic, it does show what can theoretically be achieved through simple efficiency streamlining. I also liked their emphasis on the potential competitive advantage for businesses that could arise from green initiatives.
Today all the important trends are still hurtling in the wrong direction, but I remain hopeful that the West can evolve out of its debilitating culture of consumerism and entitlement and direct its substantial resources and initiative towards building a sustainable future. Let’s keep on playing our little part in making this happen.
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Schalk, my thoughts echo yours. That is that while so much looks very gloomy ahead, mankind is capable of some amazing turnarounds. Thanks for your interesting comment, Paul
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Thanks for this Paul. Amory Lovins is, of course, absolutely right. However, I am very disappointed to note that he thinks it will take 40 years and, even more disappointed, that the USA has not really started to change its energy policy; and will not do so if Obama loses the election for POTUS.
In the meantime, the quote of Amory Lovins that I used last week seems worth repeating:
“We do have a national energy policy, it is basically to keep wasting lots of energy, import it at whatever price and by whatever means are necessary; keep stealing from our kids; and keep screwing up the climate. You may think this is a senseless, immoral, and wasteful energy policy; and you would be right.”
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Martin, while the US does not have a formal new energy policy, at State and City levels there is a huge amount taking place. Take just one example, that in our new home State, Oregon. This is the implementation of a whole chain of electric vehicle charging stations along Highway 5. More details here. Note that this is the Oregon Government website.
People power may end up being the real force of change in this country.
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Thanks for being so gracious in your response. I have now watched the video (I’m sorry but I just did not have time to spare yesterday) and am struck by the optimistic tone of it (compared to the sarcasm of the quotation in my previous comment). However, if everything Lovins suggests in his Plan B is realistic, then, why or why are our governments still continuing with Plan A?
Let me put this another way: If we can meet our long-term energy needs without generating any power from oil, coal or nuclear – and make long-term savings (and save the planet) in the process – then:
1. Why are our governments telling us we have to pay for new generations of coal-fired and nuclear power plants; and
2. Why are our energy companies telling us that energy prices must rise to pay for investment?
I find it hard to avoid reaching the conclusion that the general ignorance of the feasibility of Lovins’ Plan B is being exploited by business (via our equally suggestible politicians) in order to perpetuate Plan A. This would explain the apparent contradiction between the optimism of the video and the pessimism of the quotation.
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Martin, the questions you raise are good ones. I just regret that I can’t offer equally good answers. P.
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No problem. I have emailed my MP the questions (with a link to Reinventing Fire website and this video) and asked her to ask the Secretary of State for Energy… I then forwarded the email to the Committee on Climate Change (the advisory panel that recently described the Government’s draft energy policy as “probably illegal”)… The the answers will either be waffle or very enlightening (probably the former – but I think it is important to make them answer them).
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Very enterprising. Do let me and the readers know the outcome. Paul
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