Prediction is easy ….

…. unless it involves the future!

There was a recent TED Talk that really made me sit up and think.  Before I introduce the talk, let me offer a personal view.  I’m speaking about the changing nature of the Earth’s climate.

On balance I believe that the climate of our planet is changing and, again on balance, I believe that mankind’s activities especially with regard to CO2 emissions are the primary cause.

But here’s the rub! I’m not a scientist.

So when scientist Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist no less, recently gave a twelve-minute TED Talk about the complexity of Planet Earth’s climate I found it compelling.

Here is is.

Published on May 1, 2014
You can’t understand climate change in pieces, says climate scientist Gavin Schmidt. It’s the whole, or it’s nothing. In this illuminating talk, he explains how he studies the big picture of climate change with mesmerizing models that illustrate the endlessly complex interactions of small-scale environmental events.

Then just two days later, on May 3rd, Alex Jones, he of the blog The Liberated Way, posted Unpredictable nature, that I have the pleasure in republishing in full.  Read it and then reflect on Alex’s post and the talk given by Gavin Schmidt.

ooOOoo

Unpredictable nature

Posted on May 3, 2014
Nature is always full of surprises.

Amber the fox reflects the unpredictable face of nature showing up in my garden by surprise on random days.
Amber the fox reflects the unpredictable face of nature showing up in my garden by surprise on random days.

I went camping and woke to frost on the ground. I wrote yesterday that summer had arrived in Britain. A pool of water from recent rains had frozen over.

One thing you quickly learn about nature is its unpredictability. Everything in nature has its own free will, and will determine its own unpredictable path regardless of what humanity thinks. Those that are able to let go of control enjoy a nature full of surprises.

ooOOoo

Thanks to the modern-day internet, it takes only a moment to find a relevant quotation to close today’s post.

It is always wise to look ahead, but difficult to look further than you can see.Sir Winston Churchill.

5 thoughts on “Prediction is easy ….

  1. 🙂 Unpredictability is what the weather has been of late Paul.. 🙂 And like in Alex’s post which I too have to catch up with… The Frost caught a lot of gardeners out who had planted out far too early.. Some times those old wives tales are for good reasons too.. My Gran would say.. Never cast a clout till May’s out.. Meaning never cast off your winter clothing just yet for it often turns cold.. 🙂 We didnt plant out .. and all is safe still under the cold frames.. 🙂
    I got into 5 mins of the Video Paul, and saved to view later.. 🙂

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    1. I think you will enjoy the full video! Jean and I are visiting a well-known weather forecaster this afternoon, now in his 90s,who lives just 2 miles from here! Will be the subject of a future post.

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