The second batch of photographs taken recently on the Rogue River
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That is the last photograph from what was a gorgeous trip.
My thanks to Rusty and his dog, Mercy.
Picture Parade Four Hundred and Forty-Two
Category: Water
Picture Parade Three Hundred and Thirty-Nine
A few more of my own!
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Hope you enjoy them.
A Story of a Remarkable Rescue
Thanks to the Dodo for this.
I just love articles about dogs being rescued. Such as this one:
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Tiny Dog Trapped In Canal For Days Almost Loses Hope Of Being Found
“[T]here was no way in except to climb down …”
By Ashley Ortiz, Published on May 28, 2024.
It was a sunny spring day in Compton, California, when a group of residents spotted something white bolt across an unused canal. It’s not uncommon to find discarded items strewn along the canal, known as Compton Creek, but this was the first time they’d seen a dog trapped inside.
Situated tens of feet below ground level, the worried onlookers were unsure how a tiny pup made it into the canal in the first place.
“[T]here was no way in except to climb down,” Suzette Hall, founder of Logan’s Legacy 29 dog rescue, wrote on Facebook.
The Good Samaritans rushed to help the pup, later named Sammy, but he was too scared to let anyone get close.
“There were people who went to try to get the dog, but they were unable to secure [him],” Kristina Ross, one of Sammy’s original helpers, wrote in a Facebook comment.
Ross posted footage of Sammy sprinting down the canal on Facebook and pleaded for someone to save him. After three days of failed attempts, they contacted Logan’s Legacy, and Hall was eager to help.
Hall soon arrived with a humane dog trap in hand. As she figured out a way to lower herself into the canal to set up the trap, another pair of Good Samaritans descended.
“I [saw] the post today and jumped down the sewer with a rope,” one of the Good Samaritans wrote on Instagram. “[I] felt the need to rescue this poor baby.”
The pair trudged through muddy sewer water and trash to reach Sammy. As dangerous and uncomfortable as wading through the canal was, they knew that Sammy’s experience was even worse.
Hall watched as the men tried to catch Sammy multiple times. On their final attempt, one of the guys, Nelson, successfully cornered Sammy and threw a net around him to stop him from bolting again.
Nelson then carefully gathered up the net with Sammy still in it, and his partner lifted the pup out of the canal. They handed Sammy over to Hall, who gave the dog a big, triumphant hug before loading him up in her car.
“He literally melted in my arms,” Hall wrote. “He knew he was finally safe.”
Ross, the woman who had originally posted about Sammy, offered to foster him for the night. The grateful pup slept through the night in a cozy bed before heading to the veterinary clinic the next day, where he was immediately treated for a rotten tooth and an injured paw.
The tiny dog was soon on the mend, but his rescuers still couldn’t believe what he’d been through.
“I can’t imagine how scared he was down here in that big, huge canal, all by himself,” Hall wrote on Facebook. “He’s in recovery and doing just fine.”
While Sammy recovered at the vet clinic, he stole the heart of one of the vet techs caring for him. Instantly smitten with the pup, the loving vet tech decided to give him the best forever home he could’ve ever dreamed of.
“She said, ‘We have fallen in love … can we please adopt him?’” Hall wrote on Facebook. “[It’s] just so meant to be. He is beyond loved and getting spoiled.”
Over a month after his rescue, Sammy is thriving in his new home alongside his equally tiny Chihuahua sibling. His days are filled with cozy beds, walks with his family and play sessions with his doting sibling — and he wouldn’t have it any other way.
For his rescuers, it seems like Sammy’s journey through the canal was just yesterday. But for Sammy, his days of feeling alone and scared are far in the past. Now, he only knows love.
To help pups like Sammy get the care they need, you can donate to Logan’s Legacy 29 here.
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I have included the link to Logan’s Legacy 29 just in case you wanted to help Sammy as well. We have made a small donation.
This is the most perfect outcome one can imagine. Beautiful Sammy!
This was a very lucky moment
A hiker in Arizona saw a dog hiding, and scared!
This is such a lovely tale and one that defies all the odds.
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Hiker Stops In His Tracks When He Sees ‘Amber Eyes’ Peeking Out From Crevice
No one has any idea how she got up there ⛰️
By Caitlin Jill Anders, Published on May 3, 2024
A Good Samaritan was hiking a narrow, slippery trail on Lookout Mountain in Phoenix, Arizona, and was very focused on his hike until something caught his eye. He was about half a mile up the mountain and a little off the beaten path when he caught a glimpse of light reflecting off of something — and was shocked to realize it was a pair of amber eyes.
The eyes belonged to a very scared dog huddled up in a tiny hole in the side of the mountain. She was completely blending in with her surroundings, and if she hadn’t had such piercing eyes, the hiker may not have noticed her. He had no idea how she’d managed to get up there, but it was clear that she’d been stuck for a while and might not be able to last much longer.
The Good Samaritan quickly contacted the Arizona Humane Society (AHS), who sent two emergency animal medical technicians, Tracey Miiller and Ruthie Jesus, out to help while he waited with the pup until they arrived. The dog was definitely scared but seemed open to getting help.
“This Good Samaritan waited probably almost two hours, and then we found this incredible dog, who incidentally is literally the same color as the dirt,” Jesus said in a press release. “She blends in so much, the complainant told us that he wanted to call her Bright Eyes because when he hiked past her, that was literally the only thing he saw was her amber bright eyes staring back at him.”
After a quick and careful assessment on the side of the mountain, the technicians determined that Bright Eyes was dangerously dehydrated with cut-up paws and a wound on her rear end.
“She was really sweet and letting me pet her head, but she absolutely did not want to come out of that den, so I kind of had to just sort of pull her out,” Jesus said.
She was definitely too weak to walk with her rescuers down the mountain, so the technicians took turns carrying her until they reached the ambulance. Bright Eyes was calm the whole time, so grateful to finally be safe.
“She actually really just relaxed and seemed to enjoy being carried down the mountain,” Jesus said. “But it was a very teeny-tiny rocky trail that was pretty slick, and so Tracey and I took turns carrying her down the mountain, and she was just an absolute angel. She knew we were getting her to safety.”
It’s still a mystery as to how or why Bright Eyes ended up on the mountain in the first place, but the important thing is someone found her and now she’s getting the care she needs.
“We were so elated to be able to get her,” Jesus said. “She was just so dehydrated. I think she’d probably been up there several days and that was probably her last day, and this Good Samaritan really just saved her life.”
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Frankly, there’s nothing more to add to this account. For it captured all that so many people do for dogs.
P.S. All the above photographs were supplied by the Arizona Humane Society. Please take a look at their website.
Picture Parade Four Hundred and Twenty-Nine, not!
It is about Whale songs and is just a fabulous sound!
Last Friday there was an item on the BBC about whale song. It appears I can publish the article for you all. It is my choice over my regular Sunday Picture Parade. I hope you agree! Update: The track just 26 seconds long cannot be reproduced in this post.
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Whale song mystery solved by scientists
21 February 2024, By Helen Briggs and Victoria Gill,Science correspondents, BBC News
Scientists have worked out how some of the largest whales in the ocean produce their haunting and complex songs.
Humpbacks and other baleen whales have evolved a specialised “voice box” that enables them to sing underwater.
The discovery, published in the journal Nature, has also revealed why the noise we make in the ocean is so disruptive for these ocean giants.
Whale song is restricted to a narrow frequency that overlaps with the noise produced by ships.
“Sound is absolutely crucial for their survival, because it’s the only way they can find each other to mate in the ocean,” explained Prof Coen Elemans, of the University of Southern Denmark, who led the study.
Blue whales return to ‘safe’ tropical haven
Orcas ‘learning from adults’ to target boats
Study to measure the oceans’ ‘year of quiet’
“[These are some] of the most enigmatic animals that ever lived on the planet,” he told BBC News. “They are amongst the biggest animals, they’re smart and they’re highly social.”
Humpback whale song (For whatever reason the track cannot be listened to on this blog. That is a great shame as the song is magnificent. So please go to the BBC website for this; the link is https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68358414 )
Baleen whales are a group of 14 species, including the blue, humpback, right, minke and gray whale. Instead of teeth, the animals have plates of what is called baleen, through which they sieve huge mouthfuls of tiny creatures from the water.
Exactly how they produce complex, often haunting songs has been a mystery until now. Prof Elemans said it was “super-exciting” to have figured it out.
He and his colleagues carried out experiments using larynxes, or “voice boxes”, that had been carefully removed from three carcasses of stranded whales – a minke, a humpback and a sei whale. They then blew air through the massive structures to produce the sound.
In humans, our voices come from vibrations when air passes over structures called vocal folds in our throat. Baleen whales, instead, have a large U-shaped structure with a cushion of fat at the top of the larynx.
This vocal anatomy allows the animals to sing by recycling air, and it prevents water from being inhaled.
The researchers produced computer models of the sounds and showed that baleen whale song is restricted to a narrow frequency which overlaps with noise produced by shipping vessels.
“They cannot simply choose to, for example, sing higher to avoid the noise we make in the ocean,” explained Prof Elemans.
His study demonstrated how our ocean noise could prevent whales from communicating over long distances. That knowledge could be vital for the conservation of humpbacks, blue whales and other endangered giants of the sea.
It also provides insight into questions that researchers have been asking for decades about these eerie songs, which some sailors used to attribute to ghosts or mythical sea creatures.
Whale communication expert Dr Kate Stafford, from Oregon State University, called the study “groundbreaking”.
“The production and reception of sound is the most important sense for marine mammals, so any studies that elucidate how they make sounds has the potential to move the field forward,” she told BBC News.
Alamy
The research also paints an evolutionary picture – of how the ancestors of whales returned to the oceans from the land, and the adaptations that made it possible to communicate underwater.
The way so-called toothed whales produce sound is better understood, because the animals are easier to study. These marine mammals, which include dolphins, orcas, sperm whales and porpoises, blow air through a special structure in their nasal passages.
Dr Ellen Garland, from the Sea Mammal Research Unit at the University of St Andrews, said: “I’ve always wondered exactly how baleen whales – especially humpbacks, which my research is focused on – actually produce the variety of sounds they do.
“Studying large whales is extremely challenging at the best of times, but trying to uncover how they produce sound when you may not even be able to see them underwater while vocalising is an added level of difficulty, so these researchers have been very creative.”
Dr Stafford added that the mammals’ ability to make such complex vocal signals was “remarkable” and highlighted “how special these animals are”.
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There! I do hope you all agree that this was very worthwhile. Plus, you all got to listen to those twenty-six seconds of the very beautiful sound.
Keep it Simple – Live the Dream
A guest post from a friend of many years!
Bob Derham is someone I met many years ago, when I was living on my yacht in Larnaca, Cyprus, and I can do no better than to repeat what I wrote in my autobiography.
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I negotiated what I thought was a good deal and sold the company. Inevitably I resigned from what was now not my company; it was the end of November in the year of 1988.
In Tollesbury, I had my annual tax returns done by Peter Michael, also living in the village. Peter was an accountant who also taught accountancy at the nearby Essex University. I saw Peter and we discussed the recent agreement for the sale of the business.
“Paul, there is not a lot you can do, to be honest. You will be liable in broad terms for the tax in the difference between the opening price and the closing price. In your case the opening price was near enough zero and the closing price…” Peter did not need to finish the sentence. I got the picture and stood up to leave. Just has I was going out of the room, Peter added: “Unless you can leave the country before April 15th next year, and stay away for a minimum of four tax years. In other words, leave before April 15th, 1989.”
I walked home from Peter Michael’s house that November, 1988 with the advice I had been given ringing in my ears. I would worry about the tax implications in a day or two. But once again fate intervened.
I was a subscriber to the boating magazine Practical Boat Owner (PBO). In a late 1988 issue I read in the classifieds:
Songbird of Kent – Tradewind 33
Great opportunity to purchase a long-distance ocean yacht designed by John Rock for sea-kindly short-handed sailing.
Well kitted out, continually updated and maintained Songbird of Kent is the yacht for you if you dream of blue waters and serious long distance cruising.
Lying Larnaca, Cyprus.
I knew about Tradewind yachts, was familiar with John Rock. (As the designer of Tradewind yachts he had been featured several times in Practical Boat Owner magazine), and knew how many of his yachts had made world circumnavigations, and, finally, I deserved a holiday. I arranged to go out to Larnaca as soon as I could.
About a week later I caught a flight to Larnaca International Airport; upon arriving I rented a car and drove the few miles to the Marina.
The yacht was easy to find as it was out of the water. I met the owners, Michael and Betty Hughes, who were still living onboard Songbird of Kent. They explained why they were selling. Simply because, as Michael put it, they had been living on the boat for many years and it was time to return to their native Wales. Songbird had been extensively cruised the length of the Mediterranean Sea using Larnaca Marina as the base.
I quietly inspected the boat. Because it was lifted out viewing the boat in detail was much easier than had it still been floating. It was in good condition; very good condition in fact. Then I climbed up the ladder and entered the boat. Again I found everything that I expected, and more. It was clear to me that Michael and Betty had had the boat as their home and, consequently, everything was in order. Or to use the phrase; shipshape and Bristol fashion!
I excused myself, left the yacht and went and sat on a nearby seawall. I wanted to think. To be honest, it was pretty easy thinking. I loved the boat; it was a purchase I could afford, and if everything went to plan and I left the UK before April 15th, 1989, and stayed away for four tax years, there would be no UK tax to pay on the sale of my company Dataview. Nothing: Nada!
So that is exactly what I did!
I went back to Songbird, where Michael and Betty were still sitting in the cockpit, and told them I would buy it. They drew up a contract there and then and I signed it!
My autobiography
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Here is Bob’s story:
Paul and I first met in 1992, when I was working as a contract pilot on the BAC 1-11 for Cyprus Airways.
My last flying post was down in New Zealand, a wonderful place to be, with it’s natural beauty, and lack of aggression and oppression. The joy of life is set around being outdoors, so road trips, camping, sailing, and skiing all feature, but less on big houses, and possessions.
Although I have travelled widely in my career, I now want a simple life, and that amounts to being free of ties to a property, such that all I really need is a warm, dry place to sleep, a suitable place to prepare food, and a place to relax, it is no longer about the big house, which brings it’s own issues, and expenses.
Following on from my time living on Paul’s boat, I was then drawn to living on a boat. I owned a smaller Westerley Centaur, for a few years, and even though small, I had a very happy time when I lived on that. It was down in Lymington, a small market town on the south coast of England opposite Yarmouth, on the Isle of Wight, that I kept my first boat.
The reason for this was simple 🙂
One of the interesting people I met in Cyprus was a man called Les Powles. Paul and I would regularly go out and have a mezze in a side street of Larnaca. Les would be very easy company, and found fun in the most silly situations. I was invited to call by on his boat any time, and have a “ cuppa” What I was intrigued with onboard was a picture of the globe, but cut in half, and opened up. There were a series of lines around the world. I asked Les what this was. His reply was “It’s where I have been when sailing round the world.“
So why I asked are their three lines ?
“Because I have done it three times!“
Les was a most unusual character in that he had started building his boat in 1970. It took him 5 years to complete, and apart from a few short sea trials, Les actually had no other sailing experience, but in 1975, with barely enough rice and water onboard, he headed west. Actually he had intended to go to the Caribbean, but he had applied the variation to his navigation the wrong way, and made land fall 1500 miles from his intended destination. Les only died last year, 96, and his home had been his boat for all those years.
It’s that bit that has been the big thing for me.
Having a home has been ongoing hassle, the fun and enjoyment has been removed, because you are in a trap.
It is important to have a home, but I started to question the point of having a physical building. That brings all the ongoing costs and expenses, where the authorities can milk you for a lot of money!
I first saw Antoinette, in Lymington, and from the first moment I saw the boat, I knew I could make the boat my “home.”
She went to Southwold in Suffolk, England for a major refit, and so there is a new engine, gearbox, and propeller, replaced decking, and repairs have been carried out to the hull.
Inside, I can stand up, and although only 37 foot long, being beamy, there is a lot of room.
There are double cabins both fore and after, with “heads” (bathrooms). The main cabin and galley is very comfortable. It has a lot of mahogany wood, so looks homely, and the “dog house” (bit in the middle), is a very open useable space, either enclosed when cold and wet, or if the weather permits, opened up to enjoy the sun.
The key is that this is “my home”.
I can now travel, and go where I like, but I have my home with me. It has heating, but normally when you arrive somewhere, part of the mooring fees offer a shower unit and facilities. I have space to entertain, but above all, I am free of all the ties that we adopt by following the life society offers us as “the norm“.
It is only now that I see the traps that others face, because I can up anchor and head off, and can see where Les Powles got his freedom, and lived his dream.
The collie is “Finn”, Natalie’s dog. I think Paul was one of the first to see her when she was born, so 31 years later, Natalie wants to enjoy the alternative life.
As for Finn, he loves it. Fresh air, plenty going on, and a lot to see.
“Tiny living”, but the release from the way most people live is amazing.
No speeding tickets for me. 🤪
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Thank you, Bob for the story of you and me. That last thirty years have flown by and those years on Songbird of Kent were really special albeit the end of my cruising days were pretty scary.
Looking after our dogs in Winter
Erik Oltad has some great advice.
In our case our (remaining) dogs, Oliver and Cleopatra, are able to go outside but still remain on our land. But plenty of dog owners are not in such a privileged position and need to take their dogs on public pavements and the like.
Thus for all you dog owners in that position then Erik’s advice is for you.
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Dog care below freezing − how to keep your pet warm and safe from cold weather, road salt and more this winter
Erik Christian Olstad, University of California, Davis
Time outside with your dog in the spring, summer and fall can be lovely. Visiting your favorite downtown café on a cool spring morning, going to a favorite dog park on a clear summer evening or going on walks along a river when the leaves are changing color are all wonderful when the weather is favorable. But in much of the country, when winter rolls around, previously hospitable conditions can quickly turn chilly and dangerous for people and pups alike.
Winter brings some unique challenges for dog owners, since dogs still need activity and socialization during colder seasons. Studies have shown that dog owners are almost 50% less likely to walk their dogs when the weather gets cold. Knowing the basics of winter safety is critical to maintaining a healthy lifestyle for your dog.
I am an assistant professor at the University of California Davis School of Veterinary Medicine who weathered polar vortexes with my dog while living in Michigan early in my career. While I’ve since moved to sunny California, I’ve seen how quickly frigid temperatures can turn dangerous for pets.
Breed and age differences
Not all dogs have the same abilities to deal with cold weather. A short-coated dog like a Chihuahua is much more susceptible to the dangers of cold weather than a thick-coated husky. When the weather dips below 40 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), the well-acclimated husky may be comfortable, whereas the Chihuahua would shiver and be at risk of hypothermia.
Additionally, if your dog is used to warm weather, but you decide to move to a colder region, the dog will need time to acclimate to that colder weather, even if they have a thick coat.
Age also affects cold-weather resilience. Puppies and elderly dogs can’t withstand the chill as well as other dogs, but every dog is unique – each may have individual health conditions or physical attributes that make them more or less resilient to cold weather.
When is my dog too cold?
Pet owners should be able to recognize the symptoms of a dog that is getting too cold. Dogs will shiver, and some may vocalize or whine. Dogs may resist putting their feet down on the cold ground, or burrow, or try to find warmth in their environment when they are uncomfortable.
Just like people, dogs can get frostbite. And just like people, the signs can take days to appear, making it hard to assess them in the moment. The most common sites for frostbite in dogs are their ears and the tips of their tails. Some of the initial signs of frostbite are skin discoloring, turning paler than normal, or purple, gray or even black; red, blistered skin; swelling; pain at the site; or ulceration.
Other serious signs of hypothermia include sluggishness or lethargy, and if you observe them, please visit your veterinarian immediately. A good rule to live by is if it is too cold for you, it is too cold for your dog.
Getting your dog a sweater or jacket and paw covers can provide them with protection from the elements and keep them comfortable. Veterinarians also recommend closely monitoring your dog and limiting their time outside when the temperature nears the freezing point or drops below it.
Road salt dangers
Road salt that treats ice on streets and sidewalks can also harm dogs. When dogs walk on the salt, the sharp, rough edges of the salt crystals can irritate the sensitive skin on their paws.
Dogs will often lick their feet when they’re dirty, wet or irritated, and if they ingest any salt doing that, they may face GI upset, dehydration, kidney failure, seizures or even death. Even small amounts of pure salt can disrupt critical body functions in dogs.
Some companies make pet-safe salt, but in public it can be hard to tell what type of salt is on the ground. After walking your dog, wash off their feet or boots. You can also keep their paw fur trimmed to prevent snow from balling up or salt collecting in the fur. Applying a thin layer of petroleum jelly or paw pad balm to the skin of the paw pads can also help protect your pet’s paws from irritation.
Antifreeze risks
Antifreeze, or ethylene glycol, is in most vehicles to prevent the fluids from freezing when it gets cold out. Some people pour antifreeze into their toilets when away from their home to prevent the water in the toilet from freezing.
Antifreeze is an exceptionally dangerous chemical to dogs and cats, as it tastes sweet but can be deadly when ingested. If a pet ingests even a small amount of antifreeze, the substance causes a chemical cascade in their body that results in severe kidney damage. If left untreated, the pet may have permanent kidney damage or die.
There are safer antifreeze options on the market that use ingredients other than ethylene glycol. If your dog ingests antifreeze, please see your veterinarian immediately for treatment.
When temperatures dip below freezing, the best thing pet owners can do is keep the time spent outside as minimal as possible. Try some indoor activities, like hide-and-seek with low-calorie treats, fetch or even an interactive obstacle course. Food puzzles can also keep your dog mentally engaged during indoor time.
Although winter presents some unique challenges, it can still be an enjoyable and healthy time for you and your canine companion.
Erik Christian Olstad, Health Sciences Assistant Professor of Clinical Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Erik’s comments about ethylene glycol (EG), or antifreeze as it more commonly known, and the incredible dangers to dogs EG possesses are vital to understand.
Please, please keep your dogs very safe in Winter! If Erik’s advice helps save even a single dog then me republishing this will have been worthwhile.
Hollywood movie to reality?
Where is the global climate going?
The challenge with writing posts, albeit not so often, about the global environment, especially when I am a non-scientist, is that one relies entirely on the words of others. In the case of a recent article, published by The Conversation, the authors are claimed to be specialists, and I do not doubt their credentials.
The three authors are René van Westen who is a Postdoctoral Researcher in Climate Physics, at Utrecht University, Henk A. Dijkstra who is a Professor of Physics, also at Utrecht University, and Michael Kliphuis, a Climate Model Specialist, again at Utrecht University.
So, here is their article:
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Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows
René van Westen, Utrecht University; Henk A. Dijkstra, Utrecht University, and Michael Kliphuis, Utrecht University
Superstorms, abrupt climate shifts and New York City frozen in ice. That’s how the blockbuster Hollywood movie “The Day After Tomorrow” depicted an abrupt shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation and the catastrophic consequences.
While Hollywood’s vision was over the top, the 2004 movie raised a serious question: If global warming shuts down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is crucial for carrying heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes, how abrupt and severe would the climate changes be?
Twenty years after the movie’s release, we know a lot more about the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation. Instruments deployed in the ocean starting in 2004 show that the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium. Studies also suggest that the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
In a new study using the latest generation of Earth’s climate models, we simulated the flow of fresh water until the ocean circulation reached that tipping point.
The results showed that the circulation could fully shut down within a century of hitting the tipping point, and that it’s headed in that direction. If that happened, average temperatures would drop by several degrees in North America, parts of Asia and Europe, and people would see severe and cascading consequences around the world.
We also discovered a physics-based early warning signal that can alert the world when the Atlantic Ocean circulation is nearing its tipping point.
The ocean’s conveyor belt
Ocean currents are driven by winds, tides and water density differences.
In the Atlantic Ocean circulation, the relatively warm and salty surface water near the equator flows toward Greenland. During its journey it crosses the Caribbean Sea, loops up into the Gulf of Mexico, and then flows along the U.S. East Coast before crossing the Atlantic.
This current, also known as the Gulf Stream, brings heat to Europe. As it flows northward and cools, the water mass becomes heavier. By the time it reaches Greenland, it starts to sink and flow southward. The sinking of water near Greenland pulls water from elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean and the cycle repeats, like a conveyor belt.
Too much fresh water from melting glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet can dilute the saltiness of the water, preventing it from sinking, and weaken this ocean conveyor belt. A weaker conveyor belt transports less heat northward and also enables less heavy water to reach Greenland, which further weakens the conveyor belt’s strength. Once it reaches the tipping point, it shuts down quickly.
What happens to the climate at the tipping point?
The existence of a tipping point was first noticed in an overly simplified model of the Atlantic Ocean circulation in the early 1960s. Today’s more detailed climate models indicate a continued slowing of the conveyor belt’s strength under climate change. However, an abrupt shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation appeared to be absent in these climate models. https://www.youtube.com/embed/p4pWafuvdrY?wmode=transparent&start=0 How the ocean conveyor belt works.
This is where our study comes in. We performed an experiment with a detailed climate model to find the tipping point for an abrupt shutdown by slowly increasing the input of fresh water.
We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor belt shuts down within 100 years. The heat transport toward the north is strongly reduced, leading to abrupt climate shifts.
The result: Dangerous cold in the North
Regions that are influenced by the Gulf Stream receive substantially less heat when the circulation stops. This cools the North American and European continents by a few degrees.
The European climate is much more influenced by the Gulf Stream than other regions. In our experiment, that meant parts of the continent changed at more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) per decade – far faster than today’s global warming of about 0.36 F (0.2 C) per decade. We found that parts of Norway would experience temperature drops of more than 36 F (20 C). On the other hand, regions in the Southern Hemisphere would warm by a few degrees.
These temperature changes develop over about 100 years. That might seem like a long time, but on typical climate time scales, it is abrupt.
The conveyor belt shutting down would also affect sea level and precipitation patterns, which can push other ecosystems closer to their tipping points. For example, the Amazon rainforest is vulnerable to declining precipitation. If its forest ecosystem turned to grassland, the transition would release carbon to the atmosphere and result in the loss of a valuable carbon sink, further accelerating climate change.
The Atlantic circulation has slowed significantly in the distant past. During glacial periods when ice sheets that covered large parts of the planet were melting, the influx of fresh water slowed the Atlantic circulation, triggering huge climate fluctuations.
So, when will we see this tipping point?
The big question – when will the Atlantic circulation reach a tipping point – remains unanswered. Observations don’t go back far enough to provide a clear result. While a recent study suggested that the conveyor belt is rapidly approaching its tipping point, possibly within a few years, these statistical analyses made several assumptions that give rise to uncertainty.
Instead, we were able to develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal involving the salinity transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean. Once a threshold is reached, the tipping point is likely to follow in one to four decades.
The climate impacts from our study underline the severity of such an abrupt conveyor belt collapse. The temperature, sea level and precipitation changes will severely affect society, and the climate shifts are unstoppable on human time scales.
It might seem counterintuitive to worry about extreme cold as the planet warms, but if the main Atlantic Ocean circulation shuts down from too much meltwater pouring in, that’s the risk ahead.
This article was updated to Feb. 11, 2024, to fix a typo: The experiment found temperatures in parts of Europe changed by more than 5 F per decade.
René van Westen, Postdoctoral Researcher in Climate Physics, Utrecht University; Henk A. Dijkstra, Professor of Physics, Utrecht University, and Michael Kliphuis, Climate Model Specialist, Utrecht University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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I am 79! I like to think that whatever is coming down the wires, so to speak, will be after my death. But that is a cop out for a) I have a son and a daughter who are in their early fifties, b) I have a grandson, my daughter and son-in-law’s young man, who is a teenager, with his birthday next month, and c) I could possibly live for another twenty years.
The challenge is how to bring this imminent catastrophic global change in temperature to the fore. We need a global solution now enforced by a globally respected group of scientists and leaders, and, frankly, I do not see that happening.
All one can do is to hope. Hope that the global community will eschew the present-day extremes of warring behaviour and see the need for change. That is NOW!
So that the Hollywood movie, The Day After Tomorrow, remains a fictional story. And for those that have forgotten the film or who have never seen it, here is a small slice of a Wikipedia report:
The Day After Tomorrow is a 2004 American science fiction disaster film conceived, co-written, directed, co-produced by Roland Emmerich, based on the 1999 book The Coming Global Superstorm by Art Bell and Whitley Strieber, and starring Dennis Quaid, Jake Gyllenhaal, Sela Ward, Emmy Rossum, and Ian Holm. The film depicts catastrophic climatic effects following the disruption of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, in which a series of extreme weather events usher in climate change and lead to a new ice age.
Wikipedia
And here is a YouTube video:
There we go, folks!
Brandy has been found
Found drowned yesterday morning.
I went out yesterday morning to walk to the front gate; it is a quarter mile. I decided to take my Nikon with me.
Halfway between the bridge over Bummer Creek and our gate, I wondered if the tiny stream was flowing down that comes from the other side of the Hugo road. Imagine my surprise when I found a dead Brandy.
It was such a shock. I ached with pain and it was a while before I could function again.
However having the Nikon with me I was able to take a few photographs.
More on Sunday.
Atmospheric river hitting us in Merlin
The atmospheric river in California is reaching up to Southern Oregon
After we had the thick end of twelve inches of rain in January, February has kept up the downpours; as of yesterday morning we had had 0.52 inches (1.32 cm) for the month and it was still raining. (And 0.8 in at 08:00 this morning.)
Here’s an item from yesterday about the situation in California.
Plus the BBC News had an item on the California flood.
So it seemed opportune to present this article on atmospheric rivers.
ooOOoo
What is an atmospheric river? A hydrologist explains the good and bad of these flood-prone storms and how they’re changing
By Qian Cao, University of California, San Diego
A series of atmospheric rivers is bringing the threat of heavy downpours, flooding, mudslides and avalanches to the Pacific Northwest and California this week. While these storms are dreaded for the damage they can cause, they are also essential to the region’s water supply, particularly in California, as Qian Cao, a hydrologist at the University of California, San Diego, explains.
What are atmospheric rivers?
An atmospheric river is a narrow corridor or filament of concentrated water vapor transported in the atmosphere. It’s like a river in the sky that can be 1,000 miles long. On average, atmospheric rivers have about twice the regular flow of the Amazon River.
When atmospheric rivers run up against mountains or run into local atmospheric dynamics and are forced to ascend, the moisture they carry cools and condenses, so they can produce intense rainfall or snowfall. https://www.youtube.com/embed/w3rtYM0HtIM?wmode=transparent&start=0 A satellite view of atmospheric rivers.
Atmospheric rivers occur all over the world, most commonly in the mid-latitudes. They form when large-scale weather patterns align to create narrow channels, or filaments, of intense moisture transport. These start over warm water, typically tropical oceans, and are guided toward the coast by low-level jet streams ahead of cold fronts of extratropical cyclones.
Along the U.S. West Coast, the Pacific Ocean serves as the reservoir of moisture for the storm, and the mountain ranges act as barriers, which is why the western sides of the coastal ranges and Sierra Nevada see so much rain and snow.
Why are back-to-back atmospheric rivers a high flood risk?
Consecutive atmospheric rivers, known as AR families, can cause significant flooding.
The first heavy downpours saturate the ground. As consecutive storms arrive, their precipitation falls on soil that can’t absorb more water. That contributes to more runoff. Rivers and streams fill up. In the meantime, there may be snowmelt due to warm temperatures, further adding to the runoff and flood risk.
California experienced a historic run of nine consecutive atmospheric rivers in the span of three weeks in December 2022 and January 2023. The storms helped bring most reservoirs back to historical averages in 2023 after several drought years, but they also produced damaging floods and debris flows.
The cause of AR families is an active area of research. Compared with single atmospheric river events, AR families tend to be associated with lower atmospheric pressure heights across the North Pacific, higher pressure heights over the subtropics, a stronger and more zonally elongated jet stream and warmer tropical air temperatures.
Large-scale weather patterns and climate phenomena such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, also play an important role in the generation of AR families. An active MJO shift occurred during the early 2023 events, tilting the odds toward increased atmospheric river activity over California.
A recent study by scientists at Stanford and the University of Florida found that storms within AR families cause three to four times more economic damage when the storms arrive back to back than they would have caused by themselves.
How important are atmospheric rivers to the West Coast’s water supply?
I’m a research hydrologist, so I focus on hydrological impacts of atmospheric rivers. Although they can lead to flood hazards, atmospheric rivers are also essential to the Western water supply. Atmospheric rivers have been responsible for ending more than a third of the region’s major droughts, including the severe California drought of 2012-16.
Atmospheric rivers provide an average of 30% to 50% of the West Coast’s annual precipitation.
They also contribute to the snowpack, which provides a significant portion of California’s year-round water supply.
In an average year, one to two extreme atmospheric rivers with snow will be the dominant contributors to the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada. Together, atmospheric rivers will contribute about 30% to 40% of an average season’s total snow accumulation there.
That’s why my colleagues at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, part of the University of California, San Diego, work on improving atmospheric river forecasts and predictions. Water managers need to be able to regulate reservoirs and figure out how much water they can save for the dry season while still leaving room in the reservoirs to manage flood risk from future storms.
How is global warming affecting atmospheric rivers?
As global temperatures rise in the future, we can expect more intense atmospheric rivers, leading to an increase in heavy and extreme precipitation events.
My research also shows that more atmospheric rivers are likely to occur concurrently during already wet conditions. So, the chance of extreme flooding also increases. Another study, by scientists from the University of Washington, suggests that there will be a seasonal shift to more atmospheric rivers earlier in the rainy season.
There will likely also be more year-to-year variability in the total annual precipitation, particularly in California, as a study by my colleagues at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes projects.
Qian Cao, Hydrologist, Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes, University of California, San Diego
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
ooOOoo
PBS have also presented an item on what is an atmospheric river. Their article starts:
Forecasters warned of dangerous flooding, heavy mountain snow and a heightened risk of mudslides and avalanches Feb. 4-6, 2024, as a powerful atmospheric river took aim at California. It’s the latest in a series of atmospheric rivers to bring extreme rainfall to the West Coast.
Qian Cao
I sense many things are changing and the challenge is not to let one’s imagination go into overdrive.
Learning from Dogs 
