Category: Water

This Winter

The low snowpack this last Winter is concerning.

Although here in Southern Oregon at present we have a few wet days, in general the amount of rain coming down is well below normal levels.

That is why this recent article presented by The Conversation is being published.

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Winter’s alarmingly low snowpack offers a glimpse of the changing rhythm of water in the western US

In a good year, the West’s mountain snowpack feeds streams and rivers well into summer. George Rose/Contributor/Getty Images News

Imtiaz Rangwala, University of Colorado Boulder

Winter is more than just a season in the western U.S. – it is a savings account to get farms and homes through the long, dry summer ahead. As the snowpack that accumulates in the mountains through winter slowly melts in late spring and summer, it feeds into rivers and reservoirs that keep communities and ecosystems functioning.

The April 1 snowpack measurement has long been the single most important number in western water management, considered a strong proxy for how much water the mountains are holding in reserve.

But in 2026, that savings account has been woefully deficient.

Across the western United States, temperatures from November through February were among the warmest on record, with many areas 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 to 5.5 degrees Celsius) above the 20th-century average. March continued to break heat records. At lower elevations, the higher temperatures meant a significant part of the winter’s precipitation fell as rain rather than snow. In some places, snowfall accumulated but melted quickly during warm periods.

A chart shows an unusually low amount of area in the West with snow cover during winter 2026.
The total area of the western U.S. with snow cover was exceptionally low compared with the rest of the 21st century. National Snow and Ice Data Center

As a result, even regions that received near- or above-normal precipitation for the season failed to build substantial snowpack. In the northern Rockies and the mountains of the Pacific Northwest, any above-average snow accumulation was largely confined to the highest elevations, while middle and lower elevations had relatively little snowpack.

This situation is a hallmark of warming winters. As global temperatures rise, the freezing line where precipitation changes from rain to snow moves up the mountains, shrinking the area capable of sustaining a seasonal snowpack.

A map shows most of the stations across the western mountains were below 50% of average. The best conditions were in the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, and most of those were still below average.
At the vast majority of the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service’s snow measurement stations across the West, the snowpack’s snow-water equivalent on March 30, 2026, was less than 50% of the 1991-2020 median. Natural Resources Conservation Service
A map shows wide temperature anomalies in the western U.S. compared with the 20th-century average.
Temperatures were well above the 20th-century average across the western U.S. in winter 2025-26. National Centers for Environmental Information

The exceptionally warm winter of 2025–26 across much of the western U.S. delivered a powerful preview of what the regional water cycle in a warmer climate may increasingly look like: less snow and a fundamental reshaping of the hydrograph – the chart of how much water flows through streams across the year.

A flattening hydrologic pulse

The consequences of this shift for water supplies are already visible in streamflows.

In multiple river basins in the West, streamflows were above average in winter and early spring, and some locations were approaching record-high levels. Historically, that water would have remained frozen in the snowpack until late spring. Instead, precipitation arriving as rain – along with intermittent midwinter melting events – increased the runoff.

Scientists who study natural water flows, as I do, pay attention to the hydrographs of streamflows in river basins to see when the water flow in mountain streams is strongest and how long that flow is likely to continue into summer.

A chart shows a typical arc of increasing water flows as snow melt in 2025, compared with several peaks of snowmelt and rainfall during 2026.
This hydrograph showing two years of water flows in the St. Mary River near Babb, Mont., reflects the difference between a typical late-spring peak, as 2025 saw, and several midwinter peaks from warm temperatures and rain, as 2026 is seeing. U.S. Geological Survey

In recent years, rising temperatures have led to a redistribution of streamflows throughout the winter and early spring in ways that are fundamentally reshaping the hydrographs of snowmelt-dominated rivers. Rather than a single dominant peak during late spring or early summer, smaller peaks emerge in winter and early spring. At the same time, the traditional snowmelt pulse, relied on to fill reservoirs in late spring, weakens.

In effect, the hydrograph is flattening. The winter of 2025–26 illustrates this phenomenon: Higher early-season streamflows suggest the West will see less runoff later in the year when communities, farms and wildlife need it.

The Colorado River: A system on the edge

Nowhere does the convergence of record warmth, depleted snowpack and altered hydrology carry higher stakes than in the Colorado River Basin. More than 40 million people in seven states plus Mexico and 5.5 million acres of farmland depend on the river’s water, but the river’s flow is no longer meeting demand.

The April-through-July 2026 runoff into Lake Powell – the reservoir behind Glen Canyon Dam and the primary index of the Upper Colorado River Basin’s annual water budget – is currently forecast to rank among the lowest in recent decades. It has been tracking close to the grim years of 2002 and 2021, considered benchmarks of western drought.

Unless spring brings substantial late-season snowfall to the high mountains, 2026 could join those years as a marker of how thin the margin between water supply and demand has become in a river system already under sustained stress from two decades of drought and water overuse.

The low reservoir levels in the basin in 2026 and the low snowpack are adding fears of water shortages just as the seven states that rely on the Colorado River are struggling to reach a new water use agreement.

The changing rhythm of water in the West

The winter of 2025–26 highlights two emerging realities.

First, temperature is increasingly dominating precipitation in determining western water supplies. Even above-normal precipitation cannot compensate for persistent warmth when it falls as rain rather than snow and accelerates snowmelt in the mountains.

Second, the nature of the West’s streamflows is shifting in ways that complicate water management.

Rain-on-snow events can produce flooding in winter, as the Seattle area saw in late December 2025. A low snowpack also means less runoff in summer, which can exacerbate water shortages and raise the wildfire risk as landscapes dry out. Even if a year has normal precipitation, if it falls as rain or there is earlier snowmelt, then evaporation through summer, in a warmer climate, will leave less water in the system.

Snowpack declines, earlier runoff, elevated winter flows and flattened hydrographs are all consistent with long-standing projections for the western United States as global temperatures rise.

What makes the winter of 2025-26 notable is how clearly these signals appeared, even in a year without widespread precipitation deficits.

This shift highlights the need for adaptive reservoir operations – the ability to adjust water storage and release decisions in real time to capture earlier runoff and preserve water for longer dry seasons, while still maintaining space in reservoirs for flood control during wetter winters. For communities across the West, it also reinforces the growing reality that the familiar seasonal rhythm of mountain water is changing.

Imtiaz Rangwala, Senior Research Scientist in Climate, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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There is nothing we citizens in the West can do about this, apart from being careful about the water we use.

As Imtiaz Randwala wrote in the last paragraph in the above article: “This shift highlights the need to adaptive reservoir operations.“

Perfect poetry

Bela provides another stunning poem.

Bela places a beautiful photograph at the end of her poem. I am going to place it at the start.

Rio Grande at Abiquiu ~ bj 2022

A Bend in the River

 ~ BELA JOHNSON

The river winds, twists,
folds back onto itself —
or so it seems.

The current moves
one way.
Appearances deceive.

From above, the loop
looks like return.
Up close, it is
only a means
to move through
the landscape
as it must.

Ripples, eddies,
the low hum beneath —
all of it movement.

When I was younger
I wanted rapids,
white churn,
the reckless drop
into whatever came.

And once it dropped
I did not care
which fork opened.
Adventure for its own sake.
I mistook intensity
for aliveness.
The current felt like enough.

I mistook velocity
for direction.
Only later did I learn
the choosing was mine.

Others named the banks.
Called it grace.
Called it destiny.

But the river was never theirs
to direct.

It kept its own counsel.
I watched for years.

Until I understood:
no god could ford it for me.
No faith could walk
that valley in my stead.

The bend only appears
to return.

It does not.

It deepens,
and goes on —
beyond the bend,
beyond the frame.

Diet and its effect on the body and mind.

Your dinner may not be the best!

I subscribe to a number of services and one of them is Super Age. Part of their story is shown here:

“Super Age is a new media brand at the intersection of longevity science, culture, and the power of mindset to redefine what’s possible in this one extraordinary life, because thriving is about living well, living longer, and living boldly with intention.”

Jean and I certainly agree with that, as do many, many senior folk. I trust Super Age will not mind if I reproduce in full a recent article that they published.

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You already know not to scroll before bed or down a latte at 4 p.m., but did you know your dinner plate might be sabotaging your sleep?

Emerging research shows that what we eat directly influences how well we sleep, from how fast we fall asleep to how long we stay in deep, restorative sleep. Certain nutrients act as natural sleep aids, while others disrupt your body’s circadian rhythms or blood sugar balance. The good news? A few strategic shifts can help your body rest better, night after night.

5 Sleep-Friendly Nutrients to Add to Your Diet

What you eat in the hours leading up to bedtime can either support your body’s natural sleep cycles or short-circuit them. Specific nutrients work behind the scenes to regulate hormones, calm the nervous system, and stabilize your blood sugar while you rest. Here are five research-backed nutritional strategies to help you fall asleep faster, sleep more deeply, and wake up feeling restored.

1. Magnesium for Muscle Relaxation and Deeper Sleep

Magnesium helps quiet the nervous system, supports slow-wave (deep) sleep, and significantly increases sleep time while decreasing early morning awakening.

THE FOODS:

Add leafy greens (spinach, Swiss chard, collard greens), almonds, cashews, avocado, chickpeas, lentils and pumpkin, flax, and chia seeds like pumpkin to your daily meals.

2. Tryptophan to Increase Sleep Time

Tryptophan is an amino acid that helps the brain produce serotonin, which is then converted into melatonin, the hormone that signals it’s time to sleep. Research shows that tryptophan increases total sleep time, reduces waking time, and number of awakenings.

THE FOODS:

Kidney beans, chickpeas, red lentils, chicken, turkey, rice, eggs, oats, pumpkin seeds, and even tofu are natural sources.

3. Omega-3 Fatty Acids Essential fats to Support Circadian Health

EPA and DHA support melatonin production and help regulate the body’s internal clock. Some studies have found a correlation between Omega-3 levels and sleep quality, as well as improved sleep in people with type 2 diabetes.

THE FOODS: 

Sardines, anchovies, wild salmon, flaxseeds, walnuts, hempseeds.

4. Fiber-Rich Carbohydrates Stabilize Blood Sugar Overnight

These support overnight glucose stability, which leads to deeper sleep by promoting slow-wave sleep and reducing REM-related arousals.

THE FOODS: 

Lentils, steel-cut or rolled oats, barley, sweet potatoes, quinoa, berries, 

5. Melatonin to Improve Sleep Onset and Quality

Melatonin is a hormone naturally produced by the body to signal that it’s time to sleep. Levels rise in the evening and fall in the morning, helping to regulate your circadian rhythm. Your body’s internal clock that regulates sleep and wake cycles. Eating foods that contain small amounts of melatonin may help support this cycle and improve sleep onset and quality, especially when consumed in the evening.

THE FOODS:

Tart cherries, kiwi, walnuts, pistachios, (Eggs, salmon, yogurt and oats, provide tryptophan, B6, magnesium, and zinc. A mineral important for immune function and wound healing which your brain needs to make melatonin).

Bonus: Your Gut, Your Sleep: Why Microbiome Health Matters.

Your gut and brain are in constant communication via the gut-brain axis and the two-way communication between your digestive system and brain plays a key role in sleep regulation. A healthy gut microbiome supports the production of sleep-promoting neurotransmitters like serotonin and GABA,modulates inflammation and influences circadian rhythm through microbial metabolites such as short-chain fatty acids.

A 2025 review in the Journal of Food Science highlights how prebiotics, probiotics and fermented foods can enhance sleep by improving microbiome composition and supporting these neurochemical pathways. Though more large-scale human trials are needed, the emerging science is promising. Here’s how you should load your plates with during the day to support your microbiome:

  • Fiber-rich foods like leafy greens, berries, garlic, oats, and whole grains to nourish beneficial gut bacteria.
  • Fermented foods like yogurt, kefir, kimchi, and sauerkraut to introduce sleep-supportive probiotics.

By feeding your body the nutrients it needs to regulate melatonin, balance blood sugar, and calm the nervous system, you create the perfect internal environment for consistent, rejuvenating rest. Think of it as a nightly investment in longevity, cognition, and metabolic health—served with a side of quinoa.

Check out our Super Age Sleep Guide for more tips on improving the quality of your sleep.

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I wonder how many people are affected by a poor diet, and, more importantly, want to amend what they eat especially for their dinner.

Super Age in general publish sensible articles and this is down to an impressive group of scientific advisors. More details here!

As is said: “We are what we eat.”

Picture Parade Five Hundred and Five

A few photographs from our property.

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Even in the middle of the winter there are still wonderful sights to be seen!

Picture Parade Five Hundred and Three

Scenes of our property after a night of very heavy rain, taken on the 21st December.

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All taken by yours truly using a Nikon D750.

A worldwide myth.

An incredible fact, as in the truth, that almost nobody will accept.

Until the 22nd November, 2025, that is last Saturday, I believed this lie. A lie that spoke of the dangers, the hazards, the imminent end of the world as I believed it; as in Climate Change!

Very few of you will change your minds, of that I’m sure.

Nonetheless, I am going to republish a long article that was sent to me by my buddy, Dan Gomez.

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Latest Science Further Exposes Lies About Rising Seas

By Vijay Jayaraj

It’s all too predictable: A jet-setting celebrity or politician wades ceremoniously into hip-deep surf for a carefully choreographed photo op, while proclaiming that human-driven sea-level rise will soon swallow an island nation. Of course, the water is deeper than the video’s pseudoscience, which is as shallow as the theatrics.

The scientific truth is simple: Sea levels are rising, but the rate of rise has not accelerated. A new peer-reviewed study confirms what many other studies have already shown – that the steady rise of oceans is a centuries-long process, not a runaway crisis triggered by modern emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2).

For the past 12,000 years, during our current warm epoch known as the Holocene, sea levels have risen and fallen dramatically. For instance, during the 600-year Little Ice Age, which ended in the mid-19th century, sea levels dropped quite significantly.

The natural warming that began in the late 1600s got to a point around 1800 where loss of glacial ice in the summer began to exceed winter accumulation and glaciers began to shrink and seas to rise. By 1850, full-on glacial retreat was underway.

Thus, the current period of gradual sea-level increase began between 1800-1860, preceding any significant anthropogenic CO2 emissions by many decades. The U.S. Department of Energy’s 2025 critical review on carbon dioxide and climate change confirms this historical perspective.

“There is no good, sufficient or convincing evidence that global sea level rise is accelerating –there is only hypothesis and speculation. Computation is not evidence and unless the results can be practically viewed and measured in the physical world, such results must not be presented as such,” notes Kip Hansen, researcher and former U.S. Coast Guard captain.

New Study Confirms No Crisis

While activists speak of “global sea-level rise,” the ocean’s surface does not behave like water in a bathtub. Regional currents, land movements, and local hydrology all influence relative sea level. This is why local tide gauge data is important. As Hansen warns, “Only actually measured, validated raw data can be trusted. … You have to understand exactly what’s been measured and how.”

In addition, local tide-gauge data cannot be extrapolated to represent global sea level. This is because the geographic coverage of suitable locations for gauges is often poor, with the majority concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere. Latin America and Africa are severely under-represented in the global dataset.  Hansen says, “The global tide gauge record is quantitatively problematic, but individual records can be shown as qualitative evidence for a lack of sea-level rise acceleration.”

A new 2025 study provides confirmation. Published in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, the study systematically dismantles the narrative of accelerating sea-level rise. It analyzed empirically derived long-term rates from datasets of sufficient length – at least 60 years – and incorporated long-term tide signals from suitable locations.

The startling conclusion: Approximately 95% of monitoring locations show no statistically significant acceleration of sea-level rise. It was found that the steady rate of sea-level rise – averaging around 1 to 2 millimeters per year globally – mirrors patterns observed over the past 150 years.

The study suggests that projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which often predicts rates as high as 3 to 4 millimeters per year by 2100, overestimate the annual rise by approximately 2 millimeters.

This discrepancy is not trivial. It translates into billions of dollars in misguided infrastructure investments and adaptation policies, which assume a far worse scenario than what the data support. Because we now know that local, non-climatic phenomena are a plausible cause of the accelerated sea level rise measured locally.

Rather than pursuing economically destructive initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the basis of questionable projections and erroneous climate science, money and time should be invested in supporting coastal communities with accurate data for practical planning to adapt to local sea level rise.

Successful adaptation strategies have existed for centuries in regions prone to flooding and sea-level variations. The Netherlands is an excellent example of how engineering solutions can protect coastal populations even living below sea level.

Rising seas are real but not a crisis. What we have is a manageable, predictable phenomenon to which societies have adapted for centuries. To inflate it into an existential threat is to mislead, misallocate, and ultimately harm the communities that policymakers claim to protect.

This commentary was first published by PJ Media on September 10, 2025.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO₂ Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India.

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I shall be returning to this important topic soon. Probably by republishing that 2025 Study referred to in the above article.

I hope that you read this post.

Thank you, Dan.

A brilliant programme

I’m speaking of a series on BBC Radio 4.

The series is called Naturebang: “Becky Ripley and Emily Knight make sense of what it means to be human by looking to the natural world… Science meets storytelling with a philosophical twist.“

The website is: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00060x0

There are 35 episodes. I particularly liked the episode broadcast yesterday about the Clams.

“How do we extract the maximum amount of power from the sun? Becky Ripley and Emily Knight enlist the help of a giant, thousand-year old clam. And end up in the depths of space…

Featuring Professor Alison Sweeney at Yale University, and Mike Garrett from the Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics.

Produced and presented by Emily Knight and Becky Ripley“

Amazing!

Alex – The Ghost of the Forest

The second video from Alex and Lisa.

The video was produced on the 14th June, 2025.

Join us on an incredible Wildlife photography adventure through the wilds of Oregon, as we search for and capture stunning images of three iconic raptors: the Great Grey Owl, the Bald Eagle, and the Osprey. What was amazing is that we did not see another photographer whilst photographing these magnificent raptors! From dense forests to riverbanks and high mountain meadows, Oregon is a paradise for birdwatchers and wildlife photographers alike. In this video, we take you behind the scenes of our journey—tracking elusive owls, watching bald eagles, and photographing ospreys.

It makes us extremely proud to be living in this part of America!

The first video shoot by Alex is here.

The BBC

A fascinating programme on Radio 4.

As many of you know I was born exactly six months before VE Day on May 8th, 1945.

We soon moved from Acton to 16 Toley Avenue, in Preston Road, Wembley. A short distance down Toley Ave was Ledway Drive that led up to Barn Hill Pond.

A review of Barn Hill Pond by a dog walker, Tara Furlong, in 2020.

It’s a pond on top of a hill, which gets smaller depending on how hot and dry the summer is. It has been known to have sightings of its own grey heron, mallards on occasion, etc. Fish may lurk in its depths, and frogspawn in the spring. There are views of Wembley, and across to central London from the trig point nearby, and aspirations to open up the view to Harrow-on-the-Hill. Take a little wander and you may spy St Paul’s Cathedral. A small number of benches are available, and the bins overflow in fine weather. There’s nothing but green space and houses nearby. It’s accessible via a fairly short, steep uphill walk on uneven ground from the unserviced car park, which can get very busy; or from Wembley Park. Photos on a typical British day – i.e. a bit cloudy and soggy.

Click this link in Google to view the scene.

As a young boy I well remember looking out from Barn Hill and seeing the devastation of the property from the Nazi bombers.

There are twenty programmes on Radio 4 that are about this postwar period in Britain. I have listened to the first three and have found them deeply interesting. Anyone interested in British history is recommended to listen to them. That is the link.