Category: Economics

Essay One – Inflation – Part Two

Inflation, deflation, economic crisis and so on, getting to the bottom of meanings.

Inflation – Part two

Part One was published on the 23rd.

Paul responds

Sherry,

My first realisation is that I don’t really understand what “money growth” really means. In fact I am little uncertain about money, as a concept!

moneyAre we talking ‘growth’ as in more and more money being lent to the US Treasury Department from the [ever increasing] sale of US Treasury Bonds?

If the sale of these Bonds is to banks or institutions outside the US then there is a flow of money coming into the US via the Treasury Department that then comes into the economy via various Government programmes. Is that correct?

But this is money lent to the US. That means that in order for the US to pay it back (plus interest) there has to be the expectation of taxation income in the future sufficient to meet these debts. As my Pension advisor said, “More credit also means more debt.”

Read more of Dr Jarrell’s essay

Essay One – Inflation – Part One

Inflation, deflation, economic crisis and so on, getting to the bottom of meanings.

The background.

Not so long ago there was an exchange between me and Dr Sherry Jarrell about the meaning of inflation.  Dr Jarrell is, in every meaning of the words, a qualified economist so when I had the courage/stupidity/ignorance to query her views I could not have been more surprised to receive this:

You won’t reveal a lack of understanding of economics — there are co-existing opposing points of view on the topic – that’s why it made for an interesting discussion! (My italics)

This got me thinking.  If your author, who is reasonably well-read about many things especially protecting what little wealth he has, can miss such a fundamental point, then there must be a huge number of other people who, likewise, miss the point and, even more important, don’t even realise it!

Dr Sherry Jarrell
Dr Sherry Jarrell

Over the last few weeks Dr Jarrell has not only found time to debate with me, she, too, has realised that a more rigorous exploration of what many economic and financial terms mean has real value for readers of this Blog as well her own Blog.

Therefore I am delighted to welcome Sherry Jarrell to the team of authors.

These essays will attempt to distil clarity out of a number of basic economic ideas, starting with inflation. That seems to be a worry widely ‘predicted’ in the general media as well as elsewhere.

The essay is in the form of a debate format, albeit virtually.  We hope it is both informative and educational.  Please let us know by leaving a comment!

Inflation.

Read more of this essay on Inflation

Health care.

Being healthier seems too obvious!

Not being either a US Citizen or even a resident takes away my right to contribute an opinion.  The matter is entirely a domestic one for those living in the USA.

But my life-long Californian buddy, Dan, recently sent me an article published in the Wall Street Journal on the 12th August.  The article was written by John Mackey, the CEO of Whole Foods Market Inc. so this isn’t an impartial perspective.  (And see an important foot-note at the end of this Post)

But the last part of the article is good common sense, as you can read:

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Hitler’s 787.

Imaginative versions of the film Downfall

My son, who is a commercial pilot flying with a company that have a number of Boeing 787s on order, sent me a YouTube clip that is a re-subtitled version of the film Downfall.  That film, by the way, is an excellent portrayal of theHitler last days of Hitler in 1945 and well recommended.

Anyway, it appears that the art of substitution is alive and well because a YouTube search reveals film clips of Hitler learning about Michael Jackson’s death, Hitler being banned from playing XBox Live, Hitler loves his waffles and more.

This particular clip is about Hitler learning of delays in the delivery of the Boeing 787.  It’s funny (but does include some minor vulgarity).

Continue reading “Hitler’s 787.”

Well that’s clear then!

Conflicting views about the economic outlook

Here are two extracts:

The first from Prof. Nouriel Roubini in his RGE Monitor of today’s date:

A number of economic and financial variables have exhibited signs of improvement recently even if macro indicators are still mixed. The pace of economic deterioration has slowed significantly, and after four quarters of severe contraction in economic activity, RGE Monitor now forecasts that the U.S. will display positive real GDP growth in the second half of 2009. As discussed below, however, that does not mean that the recession in the U.S. is already over, as many analysts have argued. Indeed, all the variables used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to date recessionary periods will continue to contract or display sub-par growth. However, RGE Monitor now anticipates that policy measures and other factors will boost real GDP growth, albeit in a temporary manner, in the second half of 2009. Yet the shape of the recovery (will it be V, U or W?) and other challenges will influence the U.S. economic outlook going forward. According to RGE Monitor, growth will remain well below potential in 2010, while the shape of the recovery will be closer to a U.

The second is from David Rosenberg in yesterday’s Breakfast with Dave:

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UK employment figures.

No sign of green shoots here.

While these figures were published by the UK Office for National Statistics last Wednesday, first opportunity to comment on this Blog was today.  It’s not a pretty sight!

Employment figures, as reported Aug 2009
Employment figures, as reported Aug 2009

These trends look really nasty and not a hint of an upturn in employment or a lessening of the rate of increase in unemployment.

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The sub-prime crisis

British humour

One aspect of British culture is their dry sense of humour.  In terms of satire, for over a decade three people have held pole positions: Rory Bremner, John Bird and John Fortune.  WikiPedia has a very good summary.

Bird and Fortune have also recorded a series of ‘interviews’ focusing on some of the idiocies of life.

Here’s a classic about the sub-prime crisis.  Slightly dated but no less funny for that.

More from these incredibly, clever guys from time to time.

By Paul Handover

California – not so free anymore!

It now costs more to insure California’s debt than Russia’s

There’s a rather technical piece published recently on Bloomberg.com about the cost of insuring debt in a number of countries.

Eleven years after Russia defaulted, investors want less to insure its debt than California’s. “This would have been impossible to imagine a year ago,” said Dimitry Sentchoukov, an emerging-market credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in London.

Will the last person leaving the sunshine State, please close the door!

By Paul Handover

Economics ought to make sense?

Why economists seems just as confused as me.

We live in a world where finance and money play a hugely more important role in our everyday lives than, say, 25 years ago.  Well that’s how it seems.  Our energy costs don’t seem to be connected to supply and demand but more in the hands of the speculators.  Our house values have been greatly influenced, perhaps misaligned is a better word, by the availability of too easy money, resulting from exotic financial leveraging. Commodities are, like energy, traded for their own sake rather than to provide an efficient process of linking the grower with the consumer.  And more.

So it comes as a bit of a shock to read in a recent copy of The Economist that most of the theories and economic models are being ‘re-examined’ in the light of the current global crisis.  These theories and models are not esoteric ideas kept

The Economist July 18th 2009
The Economist July 18th 2009

within the scholarly walls of universities but used by Governments, investment institutions and banks so they affect you and I in the real world, big time!

They ought to work a great deal better than they do because they have the capability to harm, as millions have found out in the last 2 years.

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