Category: Economics

We may need a new term for Fed “Profits”

It’s more than semantics to understand what we mean by The Fed’s profits.

The Federal Reserve, it has been reported, earned record “profits” of over $46 billion in the year ending December 31, 2009.  The previous record profit was $34.6 billion in 2007. The Fed earned $31.7 billion in 2008. The financial crisis has apparently been very good for the Fed, although, as a non-profit entity, all its profits are turned over to the Treasury.  As an aside, I wonder what the Treasury plans to do with its windfall?Reduce taxes? Hmmm.

Be careful, however.  “Profits” are a bit of a misnomer for the Fed’s activities, because they pay for what they do by creating money out of thin air.  To buy a financial instrument such a treasury bill or mortgage-backed security, which is added to the left-hand-side of their balance sheet as an asset valued at cost, they create (and I do mean “create,” in the true sense of the word) an equivalent amount of deposits on the right-hand-side of their balance sheet. It does not “cost” them resources as it would you, or me, or a business.  The “expense” is deducts from revenues to arrive at this period’s profits consist mainly of employee salaries.  Fed BS Dec 2009

So if the Fed purchased a bunch of assets with reserves that they created, where do the “profits” come from?  Keep in mind, there are two major drivers of profits.  One is efficiency, or doing more with your resources. The second is pricing power, being able to charge an above-competitive price for a good or service either because you own something scarce or you make up the rules of the game.

First, two minor sources of income to the Fed are the interest and fees it charges for operating the financial system, such as check clearing and interbank electronic payments, and those it charged participants in the emergency loan programs it undertook to support credit cards and auto loans.

By far the largest source of revenue to the fed, however, came from its open market operations and the purchase of toxic assets.  The Fed had about $1.8 trillion in U.S. government debt and mortgage-related securities on its books by the end of 2009, four times the level in 2008, and the interest payments it collected on this huge pile of assets generated much of their (so-called) profits.  But interest payments are only one source of returns on financial assets. The other is “capital gains” or “price appreciation.”  If and when the Fed sells these assets, some of them considered “toxic,” there is a real risk that they will incur significant capital losses.   For example, the central bank recorded a $3.8 billion decline in the value of loans it made in bailing out Bear Stearns and AIG.

So the Fed’s profits are this period’s interest income minus the Fed’s minimal operating expenses; the capital base on which it earns income is basically “free.”  And all of these figures focus on one-period accounting entries, ignoring the huge potential negative stock of value the Fed’s activities are generating.

Don’t misunderstand. The Fed provides an invaluable service to the national and world economies, and they generally execute those services very well.  But when they begin to try to act like a business, replacing existing investment banking with their own activities, and parade around profit figures as if they meant the same thing as private industry profits, we must step back and take a moment to understand that Fed profits mean something entirely different from corporate profits.

By Sherry Jarrell

President Obama: A Tax Increase Does not Reduce Costs!

A novel, and incorrect, way to lower costs.

The latest from Washington on Health Care Reform is the Senate’s version which taxes insurance companies on plans valued at over $8,500 for individuals and $23,000 for couples.

President Obama has defended the tax as a way to drive down health costs.  “I’m on record as saying that taxing Cadillac plans that don’t make people healthier but just take more money out of their pockets because they’re paying more for insurance than they need to, that’s actually a good idea, and that helps bend the cost curve,” the president said in an interview with National Public Radio just before Christmas. “That helps to reduce the cost of health care over the long term. I think that’s a smart thing to do.”

Huh?  Mr. President, you need an Econ 101 primer. Let’s begin now, with supply and demand:Leftward shift in supply

Supply is an upward-sloping marginal cost curve, and includes the taxes and fees a business must pay to the government.  By imposing this tax, the supply curve of insurance companies will shift up and to the left, as shown in the graph, representing a higher cost per unit of insurance coverage.  The demand curve slopes down, so when intersected by a more costly supply curve, the final price to consumers rise and the amount of insurance coverage falls.   Period. End of story.  Indisputable fact.  And nothing Obama or the Senate says will change this fact, though they will try.

By Sherry Jarrell

More Shenanigans on U.S. Health Care Reform

Is this really what the Founding Fathers had in mind for America?

This topic may seem to be more about politics than economics, but anything related to health care reform is squarely rooted in the most important of economic issues:  the costs of doing business, the size of the government, and the potentially oppressive role of government in private industry.

To that end, the following is a must-read, and should make you angry, no matter what your political persuasion.  http://bostonherald.com/business/healthcare/view.bg?articleid=1224249&format=text

In this article, we see how the Senate Democrats are going to do whatever it takes to get their version of health care reform through, even if it comes down to ‘stealing’ votes.  Could the timing of this Massachusetts special election, to replace the temporary replacement put in for the late Senator Edward Kennedy, be one of the reasons that the Senate wants to rush this reform through before the President’s State of the Union Address, typically set for mid-January, though the White House is curiously reluctant to commit to a date….  ?

By Sherry Jarrell

The Troubling U.S. Unemployment Rate

Grim news continues

This isn't funny!

The U.S. unemployment rate remains at a 26-year high.  This is troubling for two reasons. One, the struggle and suffering of the unemployed (and underemployed) and the impact on the world economy.

Two, the mixed signal it gives policy makers.  I worry that the White House will think that it needs to do “more” of what it’s been doing, and dismiss any negative comments about its economic policies as a knee-jerk reaction to the unemployment figure when I, in fact, would be saying the same things if the unemployment figures had improved.  It would be a harder sell, true, but that doesn’t change the facts.

The reason?  Because I believe we would be in a better position today, with lower unemployment — no matter what the current unemployment rate — and higher growth, had the stimulus program never been initiated.  I base this on my understanding of the fundamentals of how the economy works, how businesses create value, and how labor makes itself indispensable to industry.

And none of these areas were helped or improved by the economic policies of this President.

By Sherry Jarrell

Establishing “cause and effect”

In this second of two posts on John Bougearel’s guest post at Naked Capitalism, Sherry Jarrell provides an economist’s response.

Response to “2010: Foreseeable and Unforeseeable Risks …”

In this wide-ranging and comprehensive piece, John Bougearel warns of the repercussions on the world economy of the steps taken to remedy the financial crisis.  He warns of the impact of the Federal Reserve absorbing the toxic assets and shaky collateral on its balance sheet, and of the unsustainability of Social Security and Medicare in an aging demographic.   On these basic facts, I agree.

One of the most difficult things for any writer to do when talking about economics and finance is to establish cause and effect.  In trying to analyze past policy decisions and recommend future actions, however, it is absolutely imperative to distinguish cause and effect.  In my view, Mr. Bougearel’s overview is either silent on this issue or implicitly assigns blame to the markets, when it belongs squarely on the doorstep of misguided government regulations. Continue reading “Establishing “cause and effect””

The Room For Policy Error is Enormous

In this first of two posts on John Bougearel’s guest post at Naked Capitalism, Paul Handover suggests that we read it and think about the implications.

A rather sobering reminder of the potential challenges for 2010

I am a subscriber to Naked Capitalism, thoroughly recommended by the way, and recently Yves published a guest post

John Bougearel

by John Bougearel, author of Riding the Storm Out and Director of Financial and Equity Research for Structural Logic.

I wrote to both Yves and John asking for permission to reproduce the article in full but, so far, no replies have been received.  Therefore the following are some important quotes from the article which I recommend you read in full by going to Naked Capitalism.

Read the rest of this Post

The New Year’s Day walk

A walk in two continents.

For many years it’s been traditional for me and the family to take a walk on New Year’s Day.  But this time, without me, my wife and family back in the UK decided to go to Stonehenge for a walk, on a cold crisp day.

Why ‘back in the UK’? Because I was in Sharjah, one of the seven emirates in the UAE.

When here I always stay in one of the original hotels of the country, built on the edge of the corniche.  As the day was warm and bright I decided to vary my walk.

Instead of going some 5kms round the lagoon, I made my way towards the area where the shops are mostly run by Indian people. For many years their influence has been very strong, indeed the rupee was used as currency until not long ago.

Arab dhow

It didn’t take long to leave the main area that is regularly seen and head down towards the old port where the Dhows are moored. There is an ancient feel to this area, and the water front is full of activity.

There was one man who had been unloading coal from his boat onto the quay side. You could hardly see his features until he smiled. All along there were people onboard their various craft, none of which really looked seaworthy, but which obviously make a regular and long journey to India.

The pathway was broken, and the occasional cat appeared from a rubbish bin. I made my way past the open market where animals are sold. Nothing is hidden here ! It was prayer time, and from many different minarets came the sound of the chanting. There was a lot of dirt and rubbish, uneven walk areas, and tatty shops. All with quite an East African feel. I passed a selection of tents where many plants and flowers were for sale; no garden centre as we have come to expect in England.

I finally worked my way down to the fish market, and was amazed at the white covering to the broken pathway, which turned out to be made up entirely of fish scales.

The next part of the walk was back towards the lagoon where directly in front of me was the Burj Dubai, which has taken

The Burj Dubai

just over 5 years to build, and measures 2684 feet. It is due to open this week, and if you want some office space, the cost is $4000 per square foot. The contrast from such back street filth to the glitter of the world’s tallest building separated by only a few miles brought home the stark contrast of what for most people is reality, and the unreal.

Sadly the amount of rubbish in all its forms is a huge problem, but I did smile when I saw one fisherman improvising, for instead of a float on the end of his line he was using the upturned remains of an old plastic bottle, but it did work!

Nobody bothered me, and I was quite happy taking in the sights and smells, and lost in my own thoughts, amazed that if you smiled and caught somebody’s gaze they would likely wish you Happy New Year.

By Bob Derham

U.S. GDP Growth Revised Downward….again!

Lies, damn lies, and statistics!

What a shock.  U.S. GDP is not growing at 3.5% per year, as originally reported, and celebrated with much fanfare from President Obama about how the stimulus program was working.   It is not even growing at the revised 2.8% annualized rate reported a couple of weeks later.  The latest re-revised figure is 2.2%.

Nearly the entire 2.2% annualized growth, or 3rd quarter growth of 0.55%, is driven by the cash for clunkers program, the government spending program (also called the stimulus program, but I have a big problem with that particular name), and the extended tax credit for first-time home buyers. As a result, this increase in GDP is not only entirely temporary and fleeting, it will cause lower GDP later.

The cash for clunkers program did not create more overall demand for cars; it simply pulled some of the future demand for a new car into today, all the while wasting millions of tax dollars on administering the program, and putting some dealerships out of business in the process.

The spending program simply shifted profits from businesses to support other segments of society, all of which is temporary and destroys the productive capacity of the economy for many periods to come.

The extended tax credit to first-time home buyers is a real head-scratcher.  A curious time to redistribute funds from the producers in the economy to finance a program which lowers the cost to those home buyers who would not have the funds to buy a home in the first place….second wave of home mortgage foreclosures, anyone?

By Sherry Jarrell

Government Spending is like a Hamburger Store

THERE IS ONLY ONE. 100% TAX. BIG GOVERNMENT!

(with apologies to McDonald’s Big Mac packaging)

At times when money is tight and our resources are stretched to the limit, it pays to spend our money wisely.  That is why it makes so much more sense to reduce the costs imposed on private industry instead of increasing spending by government.  Industry takes their earnings and reinvests them to create sustainable wealth creation: they hire and train workers, conduct research, build and perfect machinery and robotics, and develop brand equity and a reputation for quality. All of these endeavors represent lasting value creation. What is spent on these things this year will continue to create revenues, wages, and profits for years to come.

100% Beef (or is it tax!)

Government spending is pure consumption.  Think of a hamburger store.  While it may taste  good at the time, it is temporary and fleeting, and will likely do more harm than good in the end.   It keeps the beast alive for one period, and then the process has to start all over again next period.

When we approve a massive spending bill, it covers government purchases of goods and services for the next year, maybe less.  In one end; out the other, with nothing left to show for it, except a hungry program that needs to be fed again next year, and the next and the next.

Government programs in and of themselves never produce lasting value; only in conjunction with private industry is any wealth or value created. And even then the government purchases have pushed aside, prevented, crowded out, or priced out purchases that would have been made by the private economy.

So, please, keep this in mind whenever you think of any type of government spending or tax increase: it is here today, gone tomorrow.  Oh, and skip the fries!

By Sherry Jarrell

Speechless!

Maybe it’s me but at any level this appears to be very wrong!

Haldeman - Freddie Mac
Williams - Fannie Mae

The US Government put huge amounts of taxpayer’s money into the two huge US Mortgage companies Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation).

Now the BBC has reported that:

The heads of US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may each receive pay packages of up to $6m (£3.7m) for 2009, depending on company performance.

Now I’m not an American nor do I really understand the issues BUT when taxpayers put in $111,000,000,000 of THEIR money into these organisations (that’s $365 for every man, woman and child on the US Census!) and so many of those same US taxpayers are up the proverbial financial creek without a paddle, there has to be a better way of rewarding top bosses (of US publicly owned corporations) than the option of $6,000,000 each!

But the regulator which decided the pay levels said the awards were 40% lower than before the government bailout.

The sums involved reflected the need to attract and retain talent, it argued.

Frankly, I just don’t believe that there aren’t many other incredibly capable business leaders who would do these jobs for a fraction of six million dollars.  (The present incumbents are Michael Williams at Fannie Mae and Charles E. Haldeman Jr. at Freddie Mac who will receive a base of $900,000 in 2010 with the opportunity to earn $5.1 more if “certain targets are met“.)

Read the article here – I’m going to lay down in a dark, quiet room for a while!

By Paul Handover