Continuing on the theme
With ongoing many thanks to Penny.
Nothing to add to this wisdom from the mouths of dogs!
Picture Parade Four Hundred and Twenty-Three
Category: Culture
Pleasing one’s dog!
Penny Martin delivers another great post!
At first sight, the above title goes without saying. But then one quickly realises that not everyone, by far, has the circumstances that are ideal for dogs.
Thus, it is an important guest post from Penny.
ooOOoo
Explore the world of Learning from Dogs, where the integrity and lessons from our canine friends are celebrated.
Canine Contentment: Effortless Ways to Please Your Pooch
Enhancing your dog’s quality of life goes beyond just fulfilling their basic needs. It’s about creating a fulfilling environment that nurtures both their physical and mental well-being, ensuring they lead a happy and healthy life. By adopting a few straightforward strategies, you can make a significant impact on your furry companion’s daily life. In today’s post on the Learning From Dogs blog, we delve into practices that promise to elevate your dog’s overall happiness and strengthen the bond you share.
Diversify Playtime
Traditional fetch is a classic game, but expanding your play sessions to include interactive toys, agility courses, and the teaching of new tricks can significantly stimulate your dog’s mind and body. These activities are not just fun; they challenge your dog, keeping them mentally sharp and physically fit. An engaged dog is a happy dog, and by incorporating variety into your playtime, you ensure their days are filled with anticipation and excitement.
Upgrade Their Living Space
A nurturing environment for your dog goes beyond daily walks and playtime; it extends into the realm of maintaining a safe and secure home. Leveraging a home maintenance and repair app can be a game-changer for pet owners, offering an efficient way of covering repair and maintenance. These digital tools simplify the process of arranging service appointments. Furthermore, they connect homeowners with skilled professionals, ready to provide estimates for any necessary work, keeping the living space both comfortable and safe for your furry friend.
Plan for Daily Exercise
Tailoring daily exercise to match your dog’s breed and energy level is crucial for their overall well-being. Incorporating at least 30 minutes of brisk walking or running into their routine plays a pivotal role in maintaining physical fitness and mental alertness. This practice acts as a fundamental pillar of health, warding off boredom and potential behavioral problems, thereby securing a state of contentment and optimal health for your pet. Moreover, this commitment to regular physical activity reinforces your bond with your dog, highlighting the shared experiences that enrich your relationship.
Socialize Regularly
Socialization introduces your dog to new experiences and fellow canines, crucial for their emotional development. Visits to dog parks, pet-friendly stores, or arranging doggy playdates offer your dog a chance to develop social skills and enjoy a variety of experiences. Such outings enrich your dog’s life, offering new sights, sounds, and smells to explore, keeping their days interesting and fulfilling.
Consistent Training Sessions
Consistent training sessions are crucial for both teaching your dog new skills and enhancing the bond between you and your pet. By employing positive reinforcement methods, you not only make learning enjoyable for your dog but also significantly strengthen your relationship. Keeping the training sessions regular and brief ensures your dog’s mental stimulation is high and reaffirms their status as a cherished family member. The technique of positive reinforcement turns each training encounter into an anticipated and joyous occasion, underscoring the pleasure found in the learning process.
Mealtime Enrichment
Transforming mealtime into a game satisfies your dog’s natural foraging instincts. Puzzle feeders, snuffle mats, or hiding treats around the house can turn a routine meal into an exciting adventure. This not only enriches their daily routine but also provides mental stimulation, keeping their minds sharp and engaged.
Provide a Cozy Retreat
Ensuring your dog has a comfortable resting area is essential for their sense of security and well-being. Spending time each day on calm interactions, such as petting or grooming, reinforces their feeling of love and security. A dedicated space for rest and the assurance of your love helps them feel safe and cherished, fostering a deep sense of well-being.
Adopting these strategies not only improves your dog’s physical and mental health but also enhances the bond you share, making each moment together richer and more meaningful. Each practice, from diversifying playtime to ensuring a comfortable living space, plays a vital role in your dog’s overall happiness. By investing time and love into your dog’s well-being, you ensure they lead a fulfilling life, full of joy and love. Embrace these strategies and witness the transformation in your dog’s life, knowing you’re providing the best care and affection possible.
ooOOoo
I am very grateful to Penny for sending these posts to me.
Long may it continue!
Water, water, everywhere, but …
A dramatic article from George Monbiot about water!
I read the latest from George Monbiot yesterday morning and was startled. Startled because I hadn’t thought of it before. Startled because here in Merlin, Southern Oregon we have had so much rain since the beginning of November, 2023 that our acres are swimming in the wet. Startled since that time also our Bummer Creek, which flows across our land, has been at record depths.
But this report is incredibly important and I wanted to share it with you, as I have Geo. Monbiot’s permission for so doing.
ooOOoo
Dry Run
Posted on11th March 2024
The mega-droughts in Spain and the US are a portent of a gathering global water crisis.
By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 4th March 2024
There’s a flaw in the plan. It’s not a small one: it is an Earth-sized hole in our calculations. To keep pace with the global demand for food, crop production needs to grow by at least 50% by 2050. In principle, if nothing else changes, this is feasible, thanks mostly to improvements in crop breeding and farming techniques. But everything else is going to change.
Even if we set aside all other issues – heat impacts, soil degradation, epidemic plant diseases accelerated by the loss of genetic diversity – there is one which, without help from any other cause, could prevent the world’s people from being fed. Water.
A paper published in 2017 estimated that to match crop production to expected demand, water use for irrigation would have to increase by 146% by the middle of this century. One minor problem. Water is already maxed out.
In general, the dry parts of the world are becoming drier, partly through reduced rainfall; partly through declining river flow as mountain ice and snow retreats; and partly through rising temperatures causing increased evaporation and increased transpiration by plants. Many of the world’s major growing regions are now threatened by “flash droughts”, in which hot and dry weather sucks moisture from the soil at frightening speed. Some places, such as the southwest of the US, now in its 24th year of drought, may have switched permanently to a drier state. Rivers fail to reach the sea, lakes and aquifers are shrinking, species living in freshwater are becoming extinct at roughly five times the rate of species that live on land and major cities are threatened by extreme water stress.
Already, agriculture accounts for 90% of the world’s freshwater use. We have pumped so much out of the ground that we’ve changed the Earth’s spin. The water required to meet growing food demand simply does not exist.
That 2017 paper should have sent everyone scrambling. But as usual, it was ignored by policymakers and the media. Only when the problem arrives in Europe do we acknowledge that there’s a crisis. But while there is understandable panic about the drought in Catalonia and Andalusia, there’s an almost total failure among powerful interests to acknowledge that this is just one instance of a global problem, a problem that should feature at the top of the political agenda.
Though drought measures have triggered protests in Spain, this is far from the most dangerous flashpoint. The catchment of the Indus river is shared by three nuclear powers – India, Pakistan and China – and several highly unstable and divided regions already afflicted by hunger and extreme poverty. Today, 95% of the river’s dry season flow is extracted, mostly for irrigation. But water demand in both Pakistan and India is growing rapidly. Supply – temporarily boosted by the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush – will, before long, peak and then go into decline.
Even under the most optimistic climate scenario, runoff from Asian glaciers is expected to peak before mid-century, and glacier mass will shrink by about 46% by 2100. Some analysts see water competition between India and Pakistan as a major cause of the repeated conflicts in Kashmir. But unless a new Indus waters treaty is struck, taking falling supplies into account, this fighting could be a mere prelude for something much worse.
There’s a widespread belief that these problems can be solved simply by enhancing the efficiency of irrigation: huge amounts of water are wasted in agriculture. So let me introduce you to the irrigation efficiency paradox. As better techniques ensure that less water is required to grow a given volume of crops, irrigation becomes cheaper. As a result, it attracts more investment, encourages farmers to grow thirstier, more profitable plants, and expands across a wider area. This is what happened, for instance, in the Guadiana river basin in Spain, where a €600m investment to reduce water use by improving the efficiency of irrigation has instead increased it.
You can overcome the paradox through regulation: laws to limit both total and individual water consumption. But governments prefer to rely on technology alone. Without political and economic measures, it doesn’t work.
Nor are other technofixes likely to solve the problem. Governments are planning massive engineering schemes to pipe water from one place to another. But climate breakdown and rising demand ensure that many of the donor regions are also likely to run dry. Water from desalination plants typically costs five or 10 times as much as water from the ground or the sky, while the process requires masses of energy and generates great volumes of toxic brine.
Above all, we need to change our diets. Those of us with dietary choice (in other words, the richer half of the world’s population) should seek to minimise the water footprint of our food. With apologies for harping on about it, this is yet another reason to switch to an animal-free diet, which reduces both total crop demand and, in most cases, water use. The water demand of certain plant products, especially almonds and pistachios in California, has become a major theme in the culture wars, as rightwing influencers attack plant-based diets. But, excessive as the watering of these crops is, more than twice as much irrigation water is used in California to grow forage plants to feed livestock, especially dairy cows. Dairy milk has much higher water demand even than the worst alternative (almond milk), and is astronomically higher than the best alternatives, such as oat or soya milk.
This is not to give all plant products a free pass: horticulture can make massive demands on water supplies. Even within a plant-based diet, we should be switching from some grains, vegetables and fruit to others. Governments and retailers should help us through a combination of stronger rules and informative labelling.
Instead, they do the opposite. Last month, at the behest of the EU’s agricultural commissioner, Janusz Wojciechowski, the European Commission deleted from its new climate plan the call to incentivise “diversified” (animal-free) protein sources. Regulatory capture is never stronger than in the food and farming sector.
I hate to pile yet more on to you, but some of us have to try to counter the endless bias against relevance in politics and most of the media. This is yet another of those massive neglected issues, any one of which could be fatal to peace and prosperity on a habitable planet. Somehow, we need to recover our focus.
ooOOoo
Oh dear, oh dear!
One hates to be alarmist and yet Monbiot is a very smart reporter and this is truly important.
Oh dear, oh dear!
Picture Parade Four Hundred and Twenty-Two
And another cartoon!
Val sent me this one and I promised to publish it!
It is gorgeous and makes me smile every time I look at it.
Thank you, Val
Listening to ancient folk
Returning to climate change.
We think that climate change is a relatively recent phenomenon. Wrong! And I am not going to say any more because this post from The Conversation covers it beautifully.
ooOOoo
What ancient farmers can really teach us about adapting to climate change – and how political power influences success or failure
Chelsea Fisher, University of South Carolina
Published February, 26th, 2024
In dozens of archaeological discoveries around the world, from the once-successful reservoirs and canals of Angkor Wat in Cambodia to the deserted Viking colonies of Greenland, new evidence paints pictures of civilizations struggling with unforeseen climate changes and the reality that their farming practices had become unsustainable.
Among these discoveries are also success stories, where ancient farming practices helped civilizations survive the hard times.
Zuni farmers in the southwestern United States made it through long stretches of extremely low rainfall between A.D. 1200 and 1400 by embracing small-scale, decentralized irrigation systems. Farmers in Ghana coped with severe droughts from 1450 to 1650 by planting indigenous African grains, like drought-tolerant pearl millet.
Ancient practices like these are gaining new interest today. As countries face unprecedented heat waves, storms and melting glaciers, some farmers and international development organizations are reaching deep into the agricultural archives to revive these ancient solutions.
Drought-stricken farmers in Spain have reclaimed medieval Moorish irrigation technology. International companies hungry for carbon offsets have paid big money for biochar made using pre-Columbian Amazonian production techniques. Texas ranchers have turned to ancient cover cropping methods to buffer against unpredictable weather patterns.
But grasping for ancient technologies and techniques without paying attention to historical context misses one of the most important lessons ancient farmers can reveal: Agricultural sustainability is as much about power and sovereignty as it is about soil, water and crops.
I’m an archaeologist who studies agricultural sustainability in the past. Discoveries in recent years have shown how the human past is full of people who dealt with climate change in both sustainable and unsustainable ways. Archaeologists are finding that ancient sustainability was tethered closely to politics. However, these dynamics are often forgotten in discussions of sustainability today.
Maya milpa farming: Forest access is essential
In the tropical lowlands of Mexico and Central America, Indigenous Maya farmers have been practicing milpa agriculture for thousands of years. Milpa farmers adapted to drought by gently steering forest ecology through controlled burns and careful woodland conservation.
The knowledge of milpa farming empowered many rural farmers to navigate climate changes during the notorious Maya Collapse – two centuries of political disintegration and urban depopulation between A.D. 800 to 1000. Importantly, later Maya political leaders worked with farmers to keep this flexibility. Their light-handed approach is still legible in the artifacts and settlement patterns of post-Collapse farming communities and preserved in the flexible tribute schedules for Maya farmers documented by 16th century Spanish monks.
Maya farmers and researchers explain milpa farming.
In my book, “Rooting in a Useless Land: Ancient Farmers, Celebrity Chefs, and Environmental Justice in Yucatán,” I trace the deep history of the Maya milpa. Using archaeology, I show how ancient farmers adapted milpa agriculture in response to centuries of drought and political upheaval.
Modern Maya milpa practices began drawing public attention a few years ago as international development organizations partnered with celebrity chefs, like Noma’s René Redzepi, and embraced the concept.
However, these groups condemned the traditional milpa practice of burning new areas of forest as unsustainable. They instead promoted a “no-burn” version to grow certified organic maize for high-end restaurants. Their no-burn version of milpa relies on fertilizers to grow maize in a fixed location, rather than using controlled fire ecology to manage soil fertility across vast forests.
The result restricted the traditional practices Maya farmers have used for centuries. It also fed into a modern political threat to traditional Maya milpa farming: land grabs.
Traditional milpa agriculture requires a lot of forested land, since farmers need to relocate their fields every couple of years. But that need for forest is at odds with hotel companies, industrial cattle ranches and green energy developers who want cheap land and see Maya milpa forest management practices as inefficient. No-burn milpa eases this conflict by locking maize agriculture into one small space indefinitely, instead of spreading it out through the forest over generations. But it also changes tradition.
Maya milpa farmers are now fighting to practice their ancient agricultural techniques, not because they’ve forgotten or lost those techniques, but because neocolonial land privatization policies actively undermine farmers’ ability to manage woodlands as their ancestors did.
Milpa farmers are increasingly left to either adopt a rebranded version of their heritage or quit farming all together – as many have done.
Mexico’s fragile artificial islands: Threats from development
When I look to the work of other archaeologists investigating ancient agricultural practices, I see these same entanglements of power and sustainability.
In central Mexico, chinampas are ancient systems of artificial islands and canals. They have enabled farmers to cultivate food in wetlands for centuries.
The continuing existence of chinampas is a legacy of deep ecological knowledge and a resource enabling communities to feed themselves.
But archaeology has revealed that generations of sustainable chinampa management could be overturned almost overnight. That happened when the expansionist Aztec Empire decided to re-engineer Lake Xaltocan for salt production in the 14th century and rendered its chinampas unusable.
Today, the future of chinampa agriculture hinges on a pocket of protected fields stewarded by local farmers in the marshy outskirts of Mexico City. These fields are now at risk as demand for housing drives informal settlements into the chinampa zone.
Andean raised fields: A story of labor exploitation
Traditional Andean agriculture in South America incorporates a diverse range of ancient cultivation techniques. One in particular has a complicated history of attracting revival efforts.
In the 1980s, government agencies, archaeologists and development organizations spent a fortune trying to persuade Andean farmers to revive raised field farming. Ancient raised fields had been found around Lake Titicaca, on the border of Peru and Bolivia. These groups became convinced that this relic technology could curb hunger in the Andes by enabling back-to-back potato harvests with no need for fallowing.
But Andean farmers had no connection to the labor-intensive raised fields. The practice had been abandoned even before the rise of Inca civilization in the 13th century. The effort to revive ancient raised field agriculture collapsed.
Since then, more archaeological discoveries around Lake Titicaca have suggested that ancient farmers were forced to work the raised fields by the expansionist Tiwanaku empire during its peak between AD 500 and 1100. Far from the politically neutral narrative promoted by development organizations, the raised fields were not there to help farmers feed themselves. They were a technology for exploiting labor and extracting surplus crops from ancient Andean farmers.
Respecting ancient practices’ histories
Reclaiming ancestral farming techniques can be a step toward sustainable food systems, especially when descendant communities lead their reclamation. The world can, and I think should, reach back to recover agricultural practices from our collective past.
But we can’t pretend that those practices are apolitical.
The Maya milpa farmers who continue to practice controlled burns in defiance of land privatizers understand the value of ancient techniques and the threat posed by political power. So do the Mexican chinampa farmers working to restore local food to disenfranchised urban communities. And so do the Andean farmers refusing to participate in once-exploitive raised field rehabilitation projects.
Depending on how they are used, ancient agricultural practices can either reinforce social inequalities or create more equitable food systems. Ancient practices aren’t inherently good – it takes a deeper commitment to just and equitable food systems to make them sustainable.
Chelsea Fisher, Assistant Professor of Anthropology, University of South Carolina
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
ooOOoo
We like to think that the changing climate is a modern phenomenon but this article shows it is not. That sentence by Chelsea Fisher offers a route out of the present situation: “The world can, and I think should, reach back to recover agricultural practices from our collective past.”
A dog in an Arizona desert
For the last day in February, a wonderful story!
This is a post taken directly from The Dodo. It was published by The Dodo on the 8th February this year so it is very current.
ooOOoo
Sisters Driving Through Desert Spot A Lost Dog With Something Stuck To His Side
“He growled at us at first …”
By Caitlin Jill Anders, Published on February 8th, 2024
Vanessa Keating, Theresa Burge and Aubrey Metropulos, a group of full-time RVers and Vanlifers, were wandering around Bulldog Canyon in Arizona one day, looking for a specific type of cactus. They weren’t far from their campsite when they spotted someone tiny and furry, and quickly realized it was a dog out in the desert all alone.
They immediately knew they couldn’t leave the pup out there by himself and began the process of trying to win him over. Thankfully, it didn’t end up taking very long. The sweet dog was more than ready to be rescued.
“He growled at us at first and took some convincing to come over,” Keating told The Dodo. “It only took a few minutes for him to come up to my sister, Theresa, first, but he was still nervous. We quickly realized he had a cholla cactus stuck to the side of him, and once she pulled it off, he warmed up and got excited. So many kisses, and he even had the zoomies!”
Once the cactus was safely removed from his fur, the lost dog felt so much better and jumped for joy that he’d finally be found. His new friends gave him all the cuddles he’d been missing and started asking around their campsite about him, trying to find his family. Unfortunately, they didn’t have any luck, but they refused to stop trying.
The next day, they took the lost dog to get scanned for a microchip and were overjoyed when they discovered he had one. They got in touch with his dad, who told them the pup’s name was Echo, and quickly made arrangements for a long-awaited reunion.
“The reunion was amazing,” Keating said. “Lots of tears. He thought Echo had been eaten by a coyote and was giving up hope … He was so grateful and relieved.”
Echo had only been lost in the desert for a few days before he was found, thankfully, and he was so excited once he was back in his dad’s arms. He knew once the three women found him that they would be the ones to get him back home safely, and he was right.
ooOOoo
Echo is a lucky dog and being reunited with his Dad must have been magical. But then again, the three women that stopped to gain the attention of this lost dog, and then cuddled him and gave him perfect love are really special
So here’s to Vanessa, Theresa, and Aubrey. Well done all three of you.
Picture Parade Four Hundred and Twenty
An addition at the start of today’s Picture Parade!
That is Sharyn’s German Shepherd whose name is Rayleigh. (It is a shame that it isn’t a bigger picture of Rayleigh.)
Wonderful.
Now for the photographs from Unsplash.
oooo
Photo by Poovarasan K on Unsplash
oooo
Photo by Henos Solomon on Unsplash
oooo
Photo by Sofia Guaico on Unsplash
oooo
Photo by Anna Dudkova on Unsplash
oooo
oooo
Photo by Dustin Bowdige on Unsplash
Pure love!
This article is so beautiful!
As Stephen Messenger, the author of the article, says: “It was a moment of pure awe.” I am not going to waffle on in a prelude to this story, that was taken from The Dodo, so I am going straight into it.
ooOOoo
Animal Shelter Finds A Crate At The Door — And Most Touching Handwritten Note
“It was a moment of pure awe.”
Published on the 18th January, 2024
Earlier this week, staff at North Carolina’s Fayetteville Animal Protection Society arrived to find that a crate has been placed outside their door, covered in a blanket.
In an instant, their hearts sank.
“Our first thought was, ‘Oh no, not another case of irresponsible pet ownership,’” Jackie Peery, executive director of the shelter, told The Dodo. “We were bracing for an accidental litter dumped at our doorstep due to not spaying/neutering, or someone moving and not willing to bring their pet.”
Inside the crate was indeed a litter of bouncy puppies. But there was more.
“Then we saw the note,” Peery said. “It was a moment of pure awe.”
As the note explained, this wasn’t an act of abandonment.
It was an act of love.
The letter reads as follows:
“Please help! I found these puppies sadly after noticing a local stray dog that I would often feed when I could, dead by the road. She had been hit by a car. I knew from feeding her that she had puppies somewhere and after searching where I would usually see her I found them. I’m sorry for leaving them like this but I myself am homeless and cannot afford to care for them …”
“My heart shatters for them and their mother. I just want them to be given the chance their mother, like myself, was never given. Please do not think poorly of me but it felt wrong leaving them alone in the cold waiting on a mother that would not be coming home. Sincerely, nameless man.”
He’d saved them.
Reading the note, Peery was stunned.
“This nameless man made it his mission to find these puppies to ensure their safety,” she said. “He remains a mystery — our very own nameless hero.”
Meanwhile, the puppies he rescued are now thriving, thanks to him.
“When they first arrived, you could tell they weren’t in the best shape. But now, it’s a whole different story,” Peery said. “It’s like they understand they’ve been given a second chance and are just soaking up all the love and joy.”
In time, Peery has no doubt that each of the puppies will be adopted into loving homes. But she hopes the unnamed hero will make himself known so he can be the recipient of the same sort of kindness he’s shown.
“We’re keeping our fingers crossed that he comes forward,” Peery said. “There’s a whole community here ready to support him just as I have supported these puppies. It would be wonderful to thank him in person and perhaps even help him in return.”
ooOOoo
I am almost lost for words that this event, that was written in 2024, is so beautiful.
Are there any persons who would like to adopt a puppy? Because I want to leave you with the address, email address and contact telephone number for the Fayetteville Animal Protection Society.
Email address: info@fapspet.org
The address is 3927 Bragg Blvd, Fayetteville, NC 28303.
The telephone number is +1 910 864-9040.
Thank you, Stephen!
Picture Parade Four Hundred and Nineteen
More from Unsplash.
Photo by Anthony Duran on Unsplash
oooo
Photo by Michael Dziedzic on Unsplash
oooo
Photo by Silvana Carlos on Unsplash
oooo
Photo by Anna Dudkova on Unsplash
oooo
Photo by Sebastian Coman Travel on Unsplash
oooo
Photo by Adnan Puzić on Unsplash
oooo
Photo by Cynthia Smith on Unsplash
Dogs are so special to millions of people and that last photograph from Cynthia Smith shows what love exists between a dog and their human friend.
Hollywood movie to reality?
Where is the global climate going?
The challenge with writing posts, albeit not so often, about the global environment, especially when I am a non-scientist, is that one relies entirely on the words of others. In the case of a recent article, published by The Conversation, the authors are claimed to be specialists, and I do not doubt their credentials.
The three authors are René van Westen who is a Postdoctoral Researcher in Climate Physics, at Utrecht University, Henk A. Dijkstra who is a Professor of Physics, also at Utrecht University, and Michael Kliphuis, a Climate Model Specialist, again at Utrecht University.
So, here is their article:
ooOOoo
Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows
René van Westen, Utrecht University; Henk A. Dijkstra, Utrecht University, and Michael Kliphuis, Utrecht University
Superstorms, abrupt climate shifts and New York City frozen in ice. That’s how the blockbuster Hollywood movie “The Day After Tomorrow” depicted an abrupt shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation and the catastrophic consequences.
While Hollywood’s vision was over the top, the 2004 movie raised a serious question: If global warming shuts down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is crucial for carrying heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes, how abrupt and severe would the climate changes be?
Twenty years after the movie’s release, we know a lot more about the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation. Instruments deployed in the ocean starting in 2004 show that the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium. Studies also suggest that the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
In a new study using the latest generation of Earth’s climate models, we simulated the flow of fresh water until the ocean circulation reached that tipping point.
The results showed that the circulation could fully shut down within a century of hitting the tipping point, and that it’s headed in that direction. If that happened, average temperatures would drop by several degrees in North America, parts of Asia and Europe, and people would see severe and cascading consequences around the world.
We also discovered a physics-based early warning signal that can alert the world when the Atlantic Ocean circulation is nearing its tipping point.
The ocean’s conveyor belt
Ocean currents are driven by winds, tides and water density differences.
In the Atlantic Ocean circulation, the relatively warm and salty surface water near the equator flows toward Greenland. During its journey it crosses the Caribbean Sea, loops up into the Gulf of Mexico, and then flows along the U.S. East Coast before crossing the Atlantic.
This current, also known as the Gulf Stream, brings heat to Europe. As it flows northward and cools, the water mass becomes heavier. By the time it reaches Greenland, it starts to sink and flow southward. The sinking of water near Greenland pulls water from elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean and the cycle repeats, like a conveyor belt.
Too much fresh water from melting glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet can dilute the saltiness of the water, preventing it from sinking, and weaken this ocean conveyor belt. A weaker conveyor belt transports less heat northward and also enables less heavy water to reach Greenland, which further weakens the conveyor belt’s strength. Once it reaches the tipping point, it shuts down quickly.
What happens to the climate at the tipping point?
The existence of a tipping point was first noticed in an overly simplified model of the Atlantic Ocean circulation in the early 1960s. Today’s more detailed climate models indicate a continued slowing of the conveyor belt’s strength under climate change. However, an abrupt shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation appeared to be absent in these climate models. https://www.youtube.com/embed/p4pWafuvdrY?wmode=transparent&start=0 How the ocean conveyor belt works.
This is where our study comes in. We performed an experiment with a detailed climate model to find the tipping point for an abrupt shutdown by slowly increasing the input of fresh water.
We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor belt shuts down within 100 years. The heat transport toward the north is strongly reduced, leading to abrupt climate shifts.
The result: Dangerous cold in the North
Regions that are influenced by the Gulf Stream receive substantially less heat when the circulation stops. This cools the North American and European continents by a few degrees.
The European climate is much more influenced by the Gulf Stream than other regions. In our experiment, that meant parts of the continent changed at more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) per decade – far faster than today’s global warming of about 0.36 F (0.2 C) per decade. We found that parts of Norway would experience temperature drops of more than 36 F (20 C). On the other hand, regions in the Southern Hemisphere would warm by a few degrees.
These temperature changes develop over about 100 years. That might seem like a long time, but on typical climate time scales, it is abrupt.
The conveyor belt shutting down would also affect sea level and precipitation patterns, which can push other ecosystems closer to their tipping points. For example, the Amazon rainforest is vulnerable to declining precipitation. If its forest ecosystem turned to grassland, the transition would release carbon to the atmosphere and result in the loss of a valuable carbon sink, further accelerating climate change.
The Atlantic circulation has slowed significantly in the distant past. During glacial periods when ice sheets that covered large parts of the planet were melting, the influx of fresh water slowed the Atlantic circulation, triggering huge climate fluctuations.
So, when will we see this tipping point?
The big question – when will the Atlantic circulation reach a tipping point – remains unanswered. Observations don’t go back far enough to provide a clear result. While a recent study suggested that the conveyor belt is rapidly approaching its tipping point, possibly within a few years, these statistical analyses made several assumptions that give rise to uncertainty.
Instead, we were able to develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal involving the salinity transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean. Once a threshold is reached, the tipping point is likely to follow in one to four decades.
The climate impacts from our study underline the severity of such an abrupt conveyor belt collapse. The temperature, sea level and precipitation changes will severely affect society, and the climate shifts are unstoppable on human time scales.
It might seem counterintuitive to worry about extreme cold as the planet warms, but if the main Atlantic Ocean circulation shuts down from too much meltwater pouring in, that’s the risk ahead.
This article was updated to Feb. 11, 2024, to fix a typo: The experiment found temperatures in parts of Europe changed by more than 5 F per decade.
René van Westen, Postdoctoral Researcher in Climate Physics, Utrecht University; Henk A. Dijkstra, Professor of Physics, Utrecht University, and Michael Kliphuis, Climate Model Specialist, Utrecht University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
ooOOoo
I am 79! I like to think that whatever is coming down the wires, so to speak, will be after my death. But that is a cop out for a) I have a son and a daughter who are in their early fifties, b) I have a grandson, my daughter and son-in-law’s young man, who is a teenager, with his birthday next month, and c) I could possibly live for another twenty years.
The challenge is how to bring this imminent catastrophic global change in temperature to the fore. We need a global solution now enforced by a globally respected group of scientists and leaders, and, frankly, I do not see that happening.
All one can do is to hope. Hope that the global community will eschew the present-day extremes of warring behaviour and see the need for change. That is NOW!
So that the Hollywood movie, The Day After Tomorrow, remains a fictional story. And for those that have forgotten the film or who have never seen it, here is a small slice of a Wikipedia report:
The Day After Tomorrow is a 2004 American science fiction disaster film conceived, co-written, directed, co-produced by Roland Emmerich, based on the 1999 book The Coming Global Superstorm by Art Bell and Whitley Strieber, and starring Dennis Quaid, Jake Gyllenhaal, Sela Ward, Emmy Rossum, and Ian Holm. The film depicts catastrophic climatic effects following the disruption of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, in which a series of extreme weather events usher in climate change and lead to a new ice age.
Wikipedia
And here is a YouTube video:
There we go, folks!
Learning from Dogs 
