Do we understand our cosmos?

A recent article from The Conversation suggests not.

As much as I am interested in the cosmos my brain cannot tackle the subject with any form of intelligence.

Thus I really want to share this with you all, in the hope that some of you will appreciate the article.

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Scientists can’t agree on how fast the universe is expanding – why this matters so much for our understanding of the cosmos

Gemma Ware, The Conversation

It’s one of the biggest puzzles in cosmology. Why two different methods used to calculate the rate at which the universe is expanding don’t produce the same result. Known as the Hubble tension, the enigma suggests that there could be something wrong with the standard model of cosmology used to explain the forces in the universe.

Now, recent observations using the new James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) are shaking up the debate on how close the mystery is to being resolved.

In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, two professors of astronomy explain why the Hubble tension matters so much for our understanding of the universe.

(The Conversation included two files that one could listen to but they could not be played directly. But I have left them in the post just in case.)

https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/6669a6f9efa053001194ed11

https://shows.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/6669a6f9efa053001194ed11

In February, the Nobel prize-winning physicist Adam Reiss, published a new paper. It said that new observations of far-away stars using the JWST matched those obtained by the Hubble Space Telescope.

These stars, called Cepheids, are commonly used in one method of calculating the rate at which the universe is expanding. Known as the local distance ladder, or cosmic distance ladder, this method has been around since observations first made by Edwin Hubble himself in 1929. And it generally produces a rate of expansion of around 73km per second per mega parsec.

But a second method, using predictions of the cosmic microwave background radiation left over by the Big Bang, has constantly arrived at a different number for the rate of expansion of the universe: 67km per second per mega parsec.

Reiss said that when the new data confirmed the earlier observations from the Hubble Space Telescope, the gap between the numbers remains unresolved. “What remains is the real and exciting possibility that we have misunderstood the universe,” he said.

A few months later, however, more data from the JWST, presented by Wendy Freedman, a physicist at the University of Chicago, using observations from a different set of stars, arrived at 69km per second per mega parsec, a number closer to the cosmic microwave background figure of 67. Freedman is excited that the numbers seem to be converging.

Vicent Martínez and Bernard Jones are fascinated by the Hubble tension. Jones is an emeritus professor of astronomy at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. Martínez, his former student, is now a professor of astronomy and astrophysics at the University of València in Spain.

“The fundamental basis of science, what distinguishes science from science fiction, is our ability to verify the information we are getting,” explains Jones.

That’s why Martinez says the mystery of the Hubble tension is still driving people to:

Research and imagine experiments and organise huge projects with the complicated observation of the cosmos in order to understand what’s going on. At the end, this will affect your idea of the whole universe and probably you will need to change some fundamental ingredient of your cosmological model.

Martinez and Jones have just written a book, along with their co-author Virginia Trimble, about moments in history when scientists realised they’d got something very wrong, and had to readjust their way of thinking. Martínez thinks this could happen again with the Hubble tension:

It could happen that, for example, a new theory of gravity could solve the problem of dark energy or dark matter. We have to be open to those ideas.

Listen to Bernard Jones and Vicent Martínez talk more about the Hubble tension, and how it fits in the wider history of science, on The Conversation Weekly podcast. The episode also features an introduction from Lorena Sánchez, science editor at The Conversation in Spain.

Gemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Fascinating, albeit much of this article a little beyond me. But still fascinating.

Picture Parade Four Hundred and Thirty-Seven

Just a single image today!

That of 50 years ago.

In other words when Apollo 8 was in Lunar Orbit and William Anders, who died on June 7th, aged 90, captured Earth-rise.

This iconic picture shows Earth peeking out from beyond the lunar surface as the first crewed spacecraft circumnavigated the Moon.

Image credit: NASA

What a photograph!

A Story of a Remarkable Rescue

Thanks to the Dodo for this.

I just love articles about dogs being rescued. Such as this one:

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Tiny Dog Trapped In Canal For Days Almost Loses Hope Of Being Found

“[T]here was no way in except to climb down …”

By Ashley Ortiz, Published on May 28, 2024.

It was a sunny spring day in Compton, California, when a group of residents spotted something white bolt across an unused canal. It’s not uncommon to find discarded items strewn along the canal, known as Compton Creek, but this was the first time they’d seen a dog trapped inside.

Situated tens of feet below ground level, the worried onlookers were unsure how a tiny pup made it into the canal in the first place.

“[T]here was no way in except to climb down,” Suzette Hall, founder of Logan’s Legacy 29 dog rescue, wrote on Facebook.

Instagram – La Fine Street Repair

The Good Samaritans rushed to help the pup, later named Sammy, but he was too scared to let anyone get close.

“There were people who went to try to get the dog, but they were unable to secure [him],” Kristina Ross, one of Sammy’s original helpers, wrote in a Facebook comment.

Facebook – Kristina Ross

Ross posted footage of Sammy sprinting down the canal on Facebook and pleaded for someone to save him. After three days of failed attempts, they contacted Logan’s Legacy, and Hall was eager to help.

Hall soon arrived with a humane dog trap in hand. As she figured out a way to lower herself into the canal to set up the trap, another pair of Good Samaritans descended.

“I [saw] the post today and jumped down the sewer with a rope,” one of the Good Samaritans wrote on Instagram. “[I] felt the need to rescue this poor baby.”

Instagram – La Fine Street Repair

The pair trudged through muddy sewer water and trash to reach Sammy. As dangerous and uncomfortable as wading through the canal was, they knew that Sammy’s experience was even worse.

Hall watched as the men tried to catch Sammy multiple times. On their final attempt, one of the guys, Nelson, successfully cornered Sammy and threw a net around him to stop him from bolting again.

Nelson then carefully gathered up the net with Sammy still in it, and his partner lifted the pup out of the canal. They handed Sammy over to Hall, who gave the dog a big, triumphant hug before loading him up in her car.

“He literally melted in my arms,” Hall wrote. “He knew he was finally safe.”

Suzette Hall

Ross, the woman who had originally posted about Sammy, offered to foster him for the night. The grateful pup slept through the night in a cozy bed before heading to the veterinary clinic the next day, where he was immediately treated for a rotten tooth and an injured paw.

The tiny dog was soon on the mend, but his rescuers still couldn’t believe what he’d been through.

“I can’t imagine how scared he was down here in that big, huge canal, all by himself,” Hall wrote on Facebook. “He’s in recovery and doing just fine.”

Suzette Hall

While Sammy recovered at the vet clinic, he stole the heart of one of the vet techs caring for him. Instantly smitten with the pup, the loving vet tech decided to give him the best forever home he could’ve ever dreamed of.

“She said, ‘We have fallen in love … can we please adopt him?’” Hall wrote on Facebook. “[It’s] just so meant to be. He is beyond loved and getting spoiled.”

Suzette Hall

Over a month after his rescue, Sammy is thriving in his new home alongside his equally tiny Chihuahua sibling. His days are filled with cozy beds, walks with his family and play sessions with his doting sibling — and he wouldn’t have it any other way.

For his rescuers, it seems like Sammy’s journey through the canal was just yesterday. But for Sammy, his days of feeling alone and scared are far in the past. Now, he only knows love.

To help pups like Sammy get the care they need, you can donate to Logan’s Legacy 29 here.

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I have included the link to Logan’s Legacy 29 just in case you wanted to help Sammy as well. We have made a small donation.

This is the most perfect outcome one can imagine. Beautiful Sammy!

The tribal effect!

Another post from Patrice Ayme

Patrice, not his real name, lives in France. He is a thinker but also a communicator. Thank goodness! For many of Patrice’s blog posts are superb. Like this one ….

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No Tribe, No Vibe… Thrive With The Herd, Think Like The Herd: Not The Easiest Way To Advance Wisdom

By Patrice Ayme, June 15th, 2024.

Tribal effects are dominant, in all fields of thinking, even in the hardest sciences, logic, math, theoretical physics. It took more than three centuries for Buridan’s concept of momentum to finally rule… Among the top thinkers.

So a particular analysis is only relative to what a particular tribe will tolerate… And this is true all over, especially in so-called analytic philosophy. I recently found a (very!) unexpected effect in Relativity (by using Relativity in an unusual way). Instead of rejoicing and inquiring, the main Relativity site immediately blocked and canceled me. No debate. Never mind that I obviously knew Relativity better than most on that site. I was removed because I had not followed “the rules” … which apparently are that all what is officially known in Relativity as an Einstein cult is all there is to know.

Once I gave a physics seminar at Stanford, on Black Holes, and I prepared it with what I hoped was profound thought. Grave error. I was excoriated for showing the obvious: no good predictions without a better understanding of Quantum Mechanics. 20 years later, everybody was doing that, including the (world top) luminaries in attendance 20 years earlier. 

The effect seems ubiquitous. The most creative thinkers have to be iconoclasts, and iconoclast thinkers are hated by the tribe for breaking their icons… Until great priests of the tribe (or, more craftily, their students) steal said ideas and make them their own… The best example of this is Relativity, 99% developed by Poincaré and his associates, stolen by Einstein. Poincaré, although the world’s top mathematician, and discoverer of E = mcc, and the rest of Relativity had one problem: he belonged not just to the French tribe, but was part of a family keen to resist further German invasion… His cousin was Raymond Poincaré, the President of the French Republic, fiercely opposed to German domination. .  

So why do people do what they do? Generally to get power, be it just the power of clothing, a roof, food and consideration. And what provides all this? A tribe.

No tribe, no vibe…

So then what? Any time an idea surfaces, the first question of the most profound, hence most independent thinker, should be the idea’s tribal localization. 

If an idea has no tribal origin, it has a much better chance to be new. Conversely, ideas which are like flags should often best be… flagged down…  But some will object, where is wisdom in all this? Wisdom? What is it? The etymological root of the concept (etymology means logic of the truth…) of wisdom is to see, hence to know… The tribe has seen all there was to see, with its thousands of eyes. To see more, to see what was not seen yet… One has to go, where one didn’t go yet, or to be, what nobody was yet… or taste what had not been tasted yet (the origin of sap, hence sapiens, and sage, sagesse…)

Tribes may have the vibes, and the wiles, but also dumb down beautiful minds.

Patrice Ayme

We got to own this world, one idea at a time. And all of these ideas were born once, in one human mind, and no more than that. Thriving tribes may have the vibes and the wiles, but they never found the smarts.

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Of course I left a comment on Patrice’s blog. This is what I said,

It is 0430 in Oregon and I have just read your essay out to Jeannie. That was after reading it quietly myself.

It is profound. And it leads me on to thinking about the future, as in the next ten years. For recently a weather scientist (name forgotten) said that the peoples of Planet Earth have just ten years to reduce our emissions of, primarily, CO2 or we go past a global tipping point.

Just ten years! Not much time for a global tribe to pickup the vibe of this scientist and run with it. We require a global democracy so we can eschew our governments and get to work, now!

Picture Parade Four Hundred and Thirty-Six

Just some local scenes.

I took my camera and Jean and I toured the local area and I have a few pictures to share with you.

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Makes a nice change to photos of strange dogs!

An amazing dog story

This dog runs for help!

This story has been widely reported. For instance, the OregonLive website introduced the story as follows:

“After a car crash landed 61-year-old Brandon Garrett and his four dogs at the bottom of an 85-foot-ravine in eastern Oregon last Sunday, Garrett found an unexpected hero in his dog Blue.

Blue, a whippet and pit bull mix, traveled four miles to find help — and then captured the hearts of people in Baker County and beyond.”

But I am going to continue this with a YouTube video.

Dogs are truly amazing! (And I know I have said this many times before!)

A post on Heat

Not the first and I’m sure it won’t be the last on this topic!

We are experiencing the first week of Summer’s heat.

Where it is going, temperature-wise, who knows but the consensus is that it is becoming warmer year on year.

So this seemed like a great post to republish. It was on The Conversation.

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Heat index warnings can save lives on dangerously hot days − if people understand what they mean

The sticky combination of heat and high humidity can be more than uncomfortable – it can be deadly. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Micki Olson, University at Albany, State University of New York

You’ve probably heard people say, “It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” There’s a lot of truth to that phrase, and it’s important to understand it as summer temperatures rise.

Humidity doesn’t just make you feel sticky and uncomfortable – it also creates extra dangerous conditions on hot days. Together, too much heat and humidity can make you sick. And in severe cases, it can cause your body to shut down.

Meteorologists talk about the risk of heat and humidity using the heat index, but it can be confusing.

I’m a risk communication researcher. Here’s what you need to know about the heat index and some better ways meteorologists can talk about the risks of extreme heat.

A construction worker in reflective gear holds a jacket over his head against the sun.
Outdoor workers can be at high risk of heat illnesses. Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

What is the heat index, and how is it measured?

Heat index is the combination of the actual air temperature and relative humidity:

  • Air temperature is how hot or cold the air is, which depends on factors such as the time of day, season of the year and local weather conditions. It is what your thermometer reads in degrees Celsius or Fahrenheit.
  • Relative humidity compares how much water vapor is in the air with how much water vapor the air could hold at that temperature. It’s expressed as a percentage.

The heat index tells you what it “feels like” outside when you factor in the humidity. For example, if it’s 98 degrees Fahrenheit (36.7 Celsius) with 55% relative humidity, it might feel more like a scorching 117 F (47.2 C).

A chart with a grid showing heat and humidity risks.
NOAA’s heat index chart shows how heat and humidity combine for dangerous temperatures. NOAA

But there’s a catch: Heat index is measured in shady conditions to prevent the sun’s angle from affecting its calculation. This means if you’re in direct sunlight, it will feel even hotter.

Apparent temperature, alerts and wet bulb

“Apparent temperature” is another term you might hear this summer.

Apparent temperature is the “feels like” temperature. It considers not only temperature and humidity but also wind speed. This means it can tell us both the heat index and wind chill – or the combination of the temperature and wind speed. When conditions are humid, it feels hotter, and when it’s windy, it feels colder.

We found that apparent temperature is even less well understood than the heat index, possibly due to the word apparent having various interpretations.

There are a few other ways you may hear meteorologists talk about heat.

Wet bulb globe temperature considers temperature, humidity, wind and sunlight. It’s especially useful for those who spend time outdoors, such as workers and athletes, because it reflects conditions in direct sunlight.

HeatRisk is a new tool developed by the National Weather Service that uses colors and numbers to indicate heat risks for various groups. More research is needed, however, to know whether this type of information helps people make decisions.

In many places, the National Weather Service also issues alerts such as excessive heat watches, warnings and advisories.

The risk is getting lost in translation

Knowing about heat and humidity is important, but my colleagues and I have found that the term heat index is not well understood.

We recently conducted 16 focus groups across the United States, including areas with dry heat, like Phoenix, and more humid areas, like Houston. Many of the people involved didn’t know what the heat index was. Some confused it with the actual air temperature. Most also didn’t understand what the alerts meant, how serious they were or when they should protect themselves.

In our discussions with these groups, we found that meteorologists could get across the risk more clearly if, instead of using terms like heat index, they focus on explaining what it feels like outside and why those conditions are dangerous.

Watches, warnings and advisories could be improved by telling people what temperatures to expect, when and steps they can take to stay safe.

A woman holds a baby at an open window with a fan blowing in.
Clear warnings can help residents understand their risk and protect themselves, which is especially important for small children and older adults, who are at greater risk of heat illness. Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Climate change is exacerbating heat risks by making extreme heat more common, intense and long-lasting. This means clear communication is necessary to help people understand their risk and how they can protect themselves.

What you can do to protect yourself

With both hot and humid conditions, extra precautions are necessary to protect your health. When you get hot, you sweat. When sweat evaporates, this helps the body cool down. But humidity prevents the sweat from evaporating. If sweat cannot evaporate, the body has trouble lowering or regulating its temperature.

Although everyone is at risk of health issues in high heat, people over 65, pregnant women, infants and young children can have trouble cooling their bodies down or may run a higher risk of becoming dehydrated. Certain health conditions or medications can also increase a person’s risk of heat-related illness, so it’s important to talk to your doctor about your risk.

Heat illnesses, such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke, are preventable if you take the right steps. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention focuses on staying cool, hydrated and informed.

  • Stay cool: Use air conditioning in your home, or spend time in air-conditioned spaces, such as a shopping mall or public library. Limit or reschedule your exercise and other outdoor plans that occur in the middle of the day when it is hottest.
  • Stay hydrated: Drink more water than you might otherwise, even if you don’t feel thirsty, so your body can regulate its temperature by sweating. But avoid sugary drinks, caffeine or drinks with alcohol, because these can cause you to become dehydrated.
  • Stay informed: Know the signs of heat illness and symptoms that can occur, such as dizziness, weakness, thirst, heavy sweating and nausea. Know what to do and when to get help, because heat illnesses can be deadly.
Heat exaustion includes dizziness, thirst, heavy sweating, nausea and weakness. Move to cooler area, loosen clothing, sip cool water and get medical help if no improvement. If heat stroke, including confusion, dizziness and unconsciousness, also call 911.
The difference between heat exhaustion and heat stroke and the CDC’s advice on how to respond. NOAA, CDC

Micki Olson, Senior Researcher in Emergency and Risk Communication, University at Albany, State University of New York

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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That last diagram on staying cool, staying hydrated, and staying informed is one element in me choosing this article for publication. Further, if one looks up the website for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention then immediately one comes across:

Stay cool indoors.Stay in an air-conditioned place as much as possible. If your home does not have air conditioning, go to the shopping mall or public library—even a few hours spent in air conditioning can help your body stay cooler when you go back into the heat.

Please take care!

Picture Parade Four Hundred and Thirty-Five

Back to Unsplash for today’s photographs.

Photo by Cristina Anne Costello on Unsplash

Photo by Harshit Suryawanshi on Unsplash

Photo by Saman Tsang on Unsplash

Photo by Aldo Houtkamp on Unsplash

Photo by Chewy on Unsplash

Photo by Deepak Kumar on Unsplash

Photo by yash rai on Unsplash

Wonderful photographs.

I have done my best to avoid duplications with previous Picture Parades but cannot guarantee it.

The Same Language, but …

We are so close yet in some ways so separate!

George Bernard Shaw once quoted that: “England and America are two countries separated by the same language.”

It seems a most apt way of introducing an article published by The Conversation.

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UK and US elections: 2 very different systems united by a common political language

Long, drawn-out campaigns just aren’t Rishi Sunak’s cup of tea. Chris J Ratcliffe/WPA Pool/Getty Images.

Garret Martin, American University School of International Service

Voters in the United Kingdom on May 22 learned the date they would be joining the many, many people casting ballots around the world in 2024.

In a surprise move, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a snap election to be held on July 4 – six months earlier than many had expected. An early election is certainly a major gamble for the prime minister but one he felt was worth taking. With the ruling Conservative Party more than 20 percentage points behind opposition Labour in the latest polls, Sunak faces an uphill battle to stay in office.

The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, is heavily favored to return to power for the first time since 2010.

To a U.S. audience, many of the top issues in the election campaign will sound familiar: the economy, immigration, health care, Ukraine and Gaza. The choice of date, too, may ring a bell – and political soothsayers are already trying to read into what it means for the U.K. election to fall on Independence Day.

A person with a trash bin head gestures with his thumbs down to a person with a bucket as a head.
U.K. elections can be an odd affair in which mainstream politicians can rub shoulders with the likes of rival candidates Count Binface and Lord Buckethead. Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images

But as to the campaign itself – well, they do things a bit different on the other side of the pond. While Americans may be used to set terms and lengthy campaigns filled with endless advertising, in the U.K. such things are, to use a Britishism, “just not cricket.” Here are three main ways in which the British conduct their elections.

1. Election timeline

U.S. elections follow a predictable schedule. In 1845, Congress passed a law establishing a single day for federal elections to take place on “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November.” Further, presidents are elected for a fixed four-year term, making the dates for upcoming votes knowable for the foreseeable future.

That isn’t the case in the United Kingdom. By convention, elections have been held on a Thursday since 1935. But the month of the vote has varied considerably. For the most part, they take place in late spring or early summer – but fall and winter elections are not unheard of.

The U.K. Parliament does have a fixed term of five years, with elections automatically scheduled once that time has lapsed. In practice, however, parliaments have rarely gone the full five years.

Indeed, prime ministers in the United Kingdom have the authority to request the dissolution of Parliament at any time. They can do so without the approval of the cabinet, and so prime ministers have taken liberal advantage of their ability to control the timing of the election to try and gain an advantage.

Many thought that Sunak may have been eyeing an election later in the year, but a number of factors, including economic forecasts and not wanting the distraction of a U.S. election, may have factored in to him calling an earlier-than-expected vote.

2. Campaign rules

Besides the shifting timing, the nature and rules of the campaign are also very different in the United Kingdom. This starts with the sheer brevity of the campaign. Once Parliament is dissolved, the election must take place 25 working days later. This means the parties have a mere six weeks to make their case to the public.

And unlike in a presidential system, voters in the United Kingdom do not cast a ballot for the person they want to see lead the country. Instead, the U.K. is divided into 650 distinct constituencies; voters pick their preferred candidate to represent their local constituency in Parliament. The party with the most seats typically wins the election, and the leader of that party has the opportunity to become prime minister and govern as a single-party government or as part of a coalition.

U.K. election campaigns are also subject to strict rules to maintain neutrality. Once the campaign starts, the period of “purdah” kicks in, which imposes certain restrictions on government activities. This involves, for instance, strict prohibitions on government ministers announcing new initiatives to affect the election or using public funds for political purposes.

In the same manner, civil servants – employees of the crown who work for the government but are not political appointees – are required to maintain strict impartiality and not become involved in partisan debates.

Moreover, the Office of Communications, the United Kingdom’s independent media regulatory authority, also enforces strict rules for broadcast media, including television and radio. The 2003 Communications Act requires that all broadcast media must cover the elections in an impartial manner, providing coverage of all parties, even if they do not assign equal time.

A man in a white shirt chats to a man in a blazer. Bith hold cups.
Opposition leader Keir Starmer, left, poses on the campaign trail with what the photographer says is a cup of coffee … but which I strongly suspect is actually tea. Leon Neal/Getty Images

Broadcast media is also not allowed, on polling day, to suggest the outcome of the vote before polls are closed.

In a huge departure from the U.S., U.K. political parties are banned from buying television ads, but this rule does not apply to streaming television.

3. The role of money

The limited role of money is another distinct feature in U.K. elections. Even factoring in the different population sizes, U.K. elections are significantly cheaper than their counterparts in the United States.

Indeed, total campaign spending in the 2020 U.S. elections, covering presidential and congressional races, hit more than US$14 billion. That scale completely dwarfs how much parties and candidates will be able to spend in the 2024 United Kingdom election.

Through regulations established by the Electoral Commission, an independent government agency, a British party that competes in all constituencies in the United Kingdom will be allowed to spend just over £34 million (around $43 million) in total to support all candidates.

That figure in itself marks an 80% increase from the allowance at the last election in 2019, so to factor for inflation since limits were set in 2000.

Individual candidates can spend funds to support their campaign. But the amount, defined partly by the size of the constituency, is low and in the scale of tens of thousands of pounds. This is again a far cry from some of the more expensive congressional races in the United States, where even primary elections could attract close to $30 million in spending.

Challenging times ahead

As a result, both Sunak and Starmer will have only a short time – and limited funds – to make their case to voters. Whoever wins will face a very challenging situation at home and abroad, with little to no respite. According to the think tank Institute for Fiscal Studies, the state of public finances is “a dark cloud that hangs over the election.” And then there is the delicate matter of maintaining a special relationship with the U.S. – a country that may itself have a very different political landscape after it goes to the polls later in the year.

Garret Martin, Senior Professorial Lecturer, Co-Director Transatlantic Policy Center, American University School of International Service

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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As I have frequently said, I feel English and love the fact that I speak with an English accent. Yet I adore, along with Jean, where we live just outside Merlin in Southern Oregon. I wouldn’t want to live anywhere else in the world.

Politically we are in very strange times, as was said right at the end of this article.