In this first of two posts on John Bougearel’s guest post at Naked Capitalism, Paul Handover suggests that we read it and think about the implications.
A rather sobering reminder of the potential challenges for 2010
I am a subscriber to Naked Capitalism, thoroughly recommended by the way, and recently Yves published a guest post
John Bougearel
by John Bougearel, author of Riding the Storm Out and Director of Financial and Equity Research for Structural Logic.
I wrote to both Yves and John asking for permission to reproduce the article in full but, so far, no replies have been received. Therefore the following are some important quotes from the article which I recommend you read in full by going to Naked Capitalism.
For many years it’s been traditional for me and the family to take a walk on New Year’s Day. But this time, without me, my wife and family back in the UK decided to go to Stonehenge for a walk, on a cold crisp day.
Why ‘back in the UK’? Because I was in Sharjah, one of the seven emirates in the UAE.
When here I always stay in one of the original hotels of the country, built on the edge of the corniche. As the day was warm and bright I decided to vary my walk.
Instead of going some 5kms round the lagoon, I made my way towards the area where the shops are mostly run by Indian people. For many years their influence has been very strong, indeed the rupee was used as currency until not long ago.
Arab dhow
It didn’t take long to leave the main area that is regularly seen and head down towards the old port where the Dhows are moored. There is an ancient feel to this area, and the water front is full of activity.
There was one man who had been unloading coal from his boat onto the quay side. You could hardly see his features until he smiled. All along there were people onboard their various craft, none of which really looked seaworthy, but which obviously make a regular and long journey to India.
The pathway was broken, and the occasional cat appeared from a rubbish bin. I made my way past the open market where animals are sold. Nothing is hidden here ! It was prayer time, and from many different minarets came the sound of the chanting. There was a lot of dirt and rubbish, uneven walk areas, and tatty shops. All with quite an East African feel. I passed a selection of tents where many plants and flowers were for sale; no garden centre as we have come to expect in England.
I finally worked my way down to the fish market, and was amazed at the white covering to the broken pathway, which turned out to be made up entirely of fish scales.
The next part of the walk was back towards the lagoon where directly in front of me was the Burj Dubai, which has taken
The Burj Dubai
just over 5 years to build, and measures 2684 feet. It is due to open this week, and if you want some office space, the cost is $4000 per square foot. The contrast from such back street filth to the glitter of the world’s tallest building separated by only a few miles brought home the stark contrast of what for most people is reality, and the unreal.
Sadly the amount of rubbish in all its forms is a huge problem, but I did smile when I saw one fisherman improvising, for instead of a float on the end of his line he was using the upturned remains of an old plastic bottle, but it did work!
Nobody bothered me, and I was quite happy taking in the sights and smells, and lost in my own thoughts, amazed that if you smiled and caught somebody’s gaze they would likely wish you Happy New Year.
What a shock. U.S. GDP is not growing at 3.5% per year, as originally reported, and celebrated with much fanfare from President Obama about how the stimulus program was working. It is not even growing at the revised 2.8% annualized rate reported a couple of weeks later. The latest re-revised figure is 2.2%.
Nearly the entire 2.2% annualized growth, or 3rd quarter growth of 0.55%, is driven by the cash for clunkers program, the government spending program (also called the stimulus program, but I have a big problem with that particular name), and the extended tax credit for first-time home buyers. As a result, this increase in GDP is not only entirely temporary and fleeting, it will cause lower GDP later.
The cash for clunkers program did not create more overall demand for cars; it simply pulled some of the future demand for a new car into today, all the while wasting millions of tax dollars on administering the program, and putting some dealerships out of business in the process.
The spending program simply shifted profits from businesses to support other segments of society, all of which is temporary and destroys the productive capacity of the economy for many periods to come.
The extended tax credit to first-time home buyers is a real head-scratcher. A curious time to redistribute funds from the producers in the economy to finance a program which lowers the cost to those home buyers who would not have the funds to buy a home in the first place….second wave of home mortgage foreclosures, anyone?
that Christmas for young children is a wondrous place.
Here we are on the verge of the first full week of the New Year and soon busy lives will engage with all that 2010 is bringing. So I wanted to share with you something truly magical that happened early on Christmas morning in the Derham house.
Our little four year old woke us at 4 o’clock Christmas morning crying.
“Father Christmas hasn’t come”, he struggled to tell us through his tears.
British governmental ‘skills’ now being applied to British universities
THE GOLDEN GOOSE … Greed and the City killed off the financial golden goose – at terrible cost to ordinary people and the economy as a whole. With the problem compounded by government folly, Britain now faces years of debt and austerity to pay for it all. For the moment, the City is reeling, but at least we still have our Higher Education system, don’t we?
Well, errrrmmmm …… yes, we still have it for the moment.
Oxford University
We do – or perhaps did – have a great reputation for having world class universities. Rich foreign parents – including, of course, a good many whose source of income is highly dubious – naturally seek a good education for their children, which Britain in the past was able to provide and their country presumably couldn’t. For decades, a British degree was seen as a precious cachet of excellence in the international paper-chase.
The best place to live? It’s all down to your neighbors!
No offense to anyone else, but I live in the perfect neighborhood.
My neighborhood is not big; it consists of only one street, a circle; where you enter the street is the same place you exit. There are only about 30 homes on my street. None of them are very fancy or very big. Most of the houses are older. Some need repair. One or two are empty now. No, it isn’t the size of the neighborhood or the grandeur of the houses.
I live close to the University where I work. I could walk to work if I needed to. But I haven’t needed to, except for the one time, when the Presidential debate was held on campus and security closed it down to all but pedestrian traffic. Although it is certainly convenient, proximity to work is not the reason my neighborhood is perfect.
My girls are unlikely to agree just yet with my assessment of our neighborhood. But they are still young, and there are no kids their age on our street. One neighbor does have grandchildren their age who visit sometimes, but that doesn’t really count, they tell me. Off and on, they complain and say they want to move. My 15-year-old wants to live in a city, the bigger the better, the more people the better; my 13-year-old wants to live on a horse farm, the bigger the better, the more horses the better.
But I tell them that some day, when they are married and have children and are busy with life, they will look back on this time in our neighborhood, and will understand what I meant when I told them how very lucky we are to live here.
Because we have neighbors; real neighbors!
They welcome new families with home-baked bread; take in your mail when you are away; call to check on you when you are sick; give you a ride to get your car out of the shop; lend you their extra tall ladder. All without hesitation and without expecting anything in return. And they let me do what I can for them. There’s genuine warmth and support between neighbors on my street. It’s like an extended family.
Maybe even a little better! Why? Because they do all of this without pushing, without invading your privacy, without crossing into your personal space. They are supportive without being nosy. How totally wonderful: to have support when you need it but, as important, perhaps more important, you also have your privacy. I can’t imagine a better combination. I can’t imagine feeling safer. I can’t imagine a more wonderful neighborhood. I can’t imagine a better home. My neighbors are the best.
Learning from Dogs 