People, people, everywhere!

What on earth is going to happen?

Without doubt, President Obama’s recent speech on climate change was very welcome.  I fervently hope this is a genuine commitment to change the course of the biggest and most powerful nation on our planet.  Abandoning the Keystone XL pipeline would be the proof to my mind.  UPDATE: But read this!

But the runaway, exponential growth in CO2 has a brother; huge growth in the world’s population.

I’m going to ‘smack you in the face‘ with this population chart.

worldpop

To put that into context from a personal perspective, when I was born in 1944 the global population was 2.5 billion persons.  Some 4.7 billion fewer people than today!

But that prediction from the U.S Census Bureau in June, 2011 is already out of date!

Just a couple of weeks ago, the UN released this update:

13 June 2013 – The current world population of 7.2 billion is projected to increase by 1 billion over the next 12 years and reach 9.6 billion by 2050, according to a United Nations report launched today, which points out that growth will be mainly in developing countries, with more than half in Africa.

Now please humour me for a few moments. If the world population is presently 7.2 billion people and by 2050 the prediction is 9.2 billion people, that is an increase of 2,400,000,000 persons.

The end of 2050 is 438 months away. Now do the maths. That growth in population in that time period is the equivalent of an increase in population of 5,479,000 persons every single month!

Need to find a darkened room – I feel a headache coming on!

12 thoughts on “People, people, everywhere!”

  1. Thanks for the maths lesson, Paul. No, seriously, the figure of 5 million more people per month brings the issue into very sharp focus!

    Of course, technological optimists – mentioning no names (or anonymous aliases) – will always start by pointing out that Thomas Mathus was wrong. Too which I respond by saying, just because he has not been proven right yet does not mean that he was wrong. The next thing that those who dismiss all talk of ecological limits as “environmental alarmism” usually do is point out that population growth is slowing down. To which I would respond by saying, the good news is that growth is not exponential; the bad news is that it is linear; and the very bad news is that we have run out of time for it to slow down (which it shows very little sign of doing).

    Here in the UK, the Christian international development charity, Tearfund has been running a high-profile campaign, in effect, claiming that starvation and malnutrition are a food distribution problem (rather than a food production problem). Even if this were true – and I very much doubt that it is (or can be for much longer) – it is very hard to see how technology (i.e. hydroponics and, if we must, disease-resistant GM crops) can solve the fundamental problem, which is that we have now passed ‘Peak Land’.

    We are now trying to feed more and more people using less and less fertile land: This would be a problem even if anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) were not happening. However, since ACD is happening, soil erosion, desertification, and urban expansion are all reducing the amount of productive agricultural land available. In addition, as was predicted, ACD is causing crop yields (per hectare) to fall (not rise). Furthermore, by 2050, sea level rise will probably (if the planet is still habitable) have begun the enforced migration of millions if not billions of people. Anyone who doubts this should just look at a map of Bangladesh (for example).

    The IPCC AR4 (2007) report by Working Group II – ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’ – is already considered to massively under-estimate the scale of the problem. However, it still makes very uncomfortable reading:
    Chapter 10.4.3 – Coastal and low lying areas.

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  2. I think a counter-action is going to be coming before the population can grow much more, nature has a way of rebalancing out of control populations.

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    1. Alex, your response can not be bettered as a reply to Martin’s comment. Nature will impose her will on the entire natural fabric of Planet Earth: without doubt.

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    2. Sadly, Alex, I think you are right – and nothing I wrote is inconsistent with you being so.

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  3. Pretty clear that, barring a disaster, at the present rate (100 million a year), we will pass 8 billions by 2020…

    And now for climate message:

    The tipping point of self amplifying heating was passed in…1990.
    You can read the facts (revealed there for the first time) in:
    http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2013/06/29/gassing-earth/

    XL Keystone DOES “exarcerbate” global heating, as it would allow expansion of very dirty tar sands, with otherwise no cheap outlet (transporting by trucks is too expensive; by the way, fracked Texan oil is transported by trains to California!) Quebec and British Columbia are refusing pipes.

    Obama knows this. It’s therefore very clear that XL will “exacerbate”.

    So Obama is dissembling. Posing as smart super-ecologist, just like the croc poses as super-trunk, peacefully drifting.

    Susan Rice, Obama’s national security adviser is heavily invested in XL pipeline companies (she has millions in stock). Please do like all the mighty demoncrats, and don’t ask where, after most of her life as a political employee, she got the money:
    http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2012/12/10/no-rice-no-lice-no-dice/

    You are being played, People!
    Patrice Ayme

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    1. Patrice, thank you, as always, for offering important insights. Part of me wants to reply with so many questions. Part of me just wants to listen to the sounds of the dawn chorus (it’s 5:10am here in Merlin, OR) and just weep over the affairs of man.

      I’m going to choose the latter. Paul.

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      1. “Dawn Chorus”? The Dark Side is dark enough to use hedonism as an ally. Soon you will have to wonder how many of these pseudo-birds are actually working for the NSA. ;-)!

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  4. Nature will rebalance our Earth I have no doubts upon that fact.. as it has throughout its History… And I have to agree with Patrice Ayme with the comment ” You are being Played People”

    Oh how little the People know about those Dark Shadows which are gradually only now being exposed by the Light! ..

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